Analysis Of Influencing Factors In Each Region Of Hubei Province's Carbon Emissions And Forecast

In order to jointly deal with the growing problem of carbon emissions,countries have introduced measures to curb the rapid growth of carbon emission.As China's central developed province of Hubei Province,is also facing carbon emission reduction pressure.It must fulfill the low-carbon development goals set out in the 13 th Five-Year Plan.However,from the current situation of carbon emissions in various regions of Hubei Province,carbon emissions in some areas are still very high,the trend of carbon emission growth is more obvious,and the gap between the region's carbon emissions is also very obvious.Therefore,this paper studies the regional differences between the current situation of the carbon emissions and the influence factors of carbon emissions of cities in Hubei Province.This has important theoretical and practical significance in formulating differentiated carbon emission reduction policies.First of all,this paper introduces the carbon emission reduction background,which shows that Hubei Province is also facing the task of carbon emission reduction.The literature at domestic and foreign is combed according to the carbon emission measurement method,the influence factors of carbon emission and the carbon emission prediction.On this basis,the main content and methods of this paper,the significance of the study and possible innovation points are put forward.Second,from the three aspects of economic development,energy consumption and carbon emission,the current situation of energy consumption and carbon emissions in some cities in Hubei Province was analyzed.Its results show that there are obvious regional differences in the carbon emissions of Hubei Province.The curve relationship between economic development and carbon emissions of cities in Hubei Province is explored.The curve of Wuhan,Huangshi,Shiyan,Jingzhou and Ezhou were all inverted U-shaped,but there are differences in the inflexion position of their curves.The curve of Jingmen was N-shaped,the curve of Xianning was U-shaped,and the curve with the Suizhou was the left half of the U-shaped.Third,the total amount of carbon emissions was broken down into five factors: energy structure,energy efficiency,economic development,urbanization level and population scale with the LMDI model.The influence factors of carbon emissions of some cities in Hubei Province were measured to analyze the differences between the influencing factors in cities,and the main influencing factors of carbon emissions in each city were explored.Its results show that the contribution of various factors to carbon emissions in different cities is quite different.In Wuhan,energy efficiency and economic development factors play a major role in its carbon emissions.In Huangshi,Jingzhou and Ezhou,economic development and energy efficiency factors play a major role in their carbon emissions.In Shiyan and Jingmen,energy efficiency and economic development factors play a major role in their carbon emissions.In Xianning,economic development,energy efficiency and urbanization level factors play a major role in its carbon emissions.In Suizhou,energy efficiency factor play a major role in its carbon emissions.Finally,training samples and test samples were built.The trended STIRPAT model,Grey Marko model and trend extrapolation model were established by training samples,and the predictive performance of the three models were evaluated in the test samples.Its results show that the prediction performance of the trended STIRPAT model is better than that other models.Then,a combination model of GM(1,1)and trended STIRPAT was constructed to predict the carbon emissions of some cities in Hubei Province from 2018 to 2020.The results show that the future carbon emission trends of Wuhan,Huangshi and Xianning are increasing trend,of which the growth trend is large and obvious in Xianning.The future carbon emission trends of Jingmen,Ezhou,Jingzhou and Shiyan are decreasing trend.