| Chemical storage firms bringing huge economic benefits, also have the potential and terminal risk which results in great safety trouble to personnel and equipment in this area. Due to domestic researches on risk evaluation of storage firms are not deep currently, the interaction among different tanks is rarely involved in traditional methods. Once an urgent accident occurs, those methods are not able to offer more accurate analysis about risk for emergency command staff. Thus, it would lead personnel to suffer a greater loss.In order to solve this problem, the interaction among different tanks and final risk would be studied further and in detail, in addition, more accurate information about risk and some suggestion about risk management would be provided. In this paper, the terminal risk evaluation method of quantitative analysis would be explored, risk evaluation system software would be developed, and proper suggestion for safety management would be given. Firstly failure probability and failure effect of single tank is studied, then, with the consideration of domino effect, a model of accident spread to deal with a tank’s failure probability after the interaction of different ones will be built. In addition, after taking all of tanks into consideration, risk distribution in the storage firm will be calculated. At last, a software of risk evaluation will be developed based on C# and the above theories. In this article, the following several aspects are included in:(1) Based on fault tree-analytic hierarchy process(ahp), the tank’s failure probability because of fire or bomb is calculated. The cause of accidents and main element are found out, and class time system model is set up to solve the weight of all elements which cause accidents. Then single tank’s failure probability can be calculated multiplying weighing factors. In addition, the tank’s failure probability because of leakage is calculated based on the reliability theory or sound emission technology.(2) Based on ANSYS-DYNA, the influence on tanks near emergency tank which may be in combustion or blast is studied, and the failure probability of influenced tanks is solved. By using ANSYS thermodynamic module, it can simulate the thermal response process of adjacent tanks in fire environment, analysis failure mode, and calculate failure time and failure probability. Besides, by using LS-DYNA, it can simulate the dynamic response process of adjacent tanks under bomb fragment impacts, and study the relationship of thickness pieces into tank’s shell with speed, angle and so on. Then by using Monte-Carlo method, fragment mass ejection trajectory can be simulated, and failure probability under debris impact would be calculated.(3) With consideration of domino effect, complex network accident spread model based on Markov Chain would be set up. Through this model, it is easy to deal with interaction among different tanks, thus to solve the final failure probability. Then based on risk superposition principle and grid technology, according to nearby regional population distribution, social risk value of storage firm would be solved, and risk profile would be draw.(4) By using C# programming language, the storage firm risk evaluation system(SFRE) can be developed and finished. Then it would be applied to analysis an example of local chemical storage firm in Nantong. |
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