| Increased global climate change and the worsening ecological environment coupled with the break-out of global systemic ecological crisis indicate that the environment support capacity of traditional industrial development pattern has already reached its limit.Also,the development of resilient economic growth in the traditional way has come to the edge of breaking down,and the traditional industrial structure has been approaching saturation with failing plasticity,which has put forward new issues and tasks of the progress of this historical development era,that is,to change the current development pattern and innovate a more civilized one.It is reported that up to 90%of the negative climate change may have mainly been caused by human factors,where industrial activity accounts for the major share.In recent years,the CPC Central Committee and the State Council,while attaching great importance to addressing climate change,advocate low carbon development pattern as a core guidance in accelerating the transformation of economic development,economic restructuring and promoting a new round of industrial revolution.In the meantime,a series of major policies have teen issued to promote low-carbon development.Both the national leaders and two terms of government have solemnly promised to achieve the goal of reducing the intensity of carbon emission in 2020 by 40-45%than that of 2005,making it a binding target into national economic and social cdevelopment and long-term planning.Both reports of the 18th Congress of China's Communist Party and the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist require that we should vigorously promote the construction of ecological civilization,advocate a green,cyclic and low-carbon development pattern,in order to form a resource-conserving and environment-friendly spatial pattern,industrial structure,production pattern and lifestyle.To advocate a low-carbon development pattern of Jiangsu,a systemic layout and organization should be drafted to ensure strategic,holistic and instructive practice.In recent years,low-carbon economy has become a hot research topic,as abundant research has been done in various aspects,whether it is in theoretical construction or in real practice,the overall deployment or business plan,the ways and means or the model architecture,all of which have formed rich research achievement,capable of providing guidance and reference for real practice and activities.Particularly,with regard to low-carbon industry and low-carbon industrial development research,increasing research has been done to address the key issues in this regard,including the significance,the necessity and feasibility of the low-carbon economy,industrial structure characteristics,input and output,product research footprint,as well as scenario analysis.This paper,based on the practical situation of Jiangsu Province and its industrial development foundation,analyzed the scale and characteristics of carbon emission of the whole industry and subdivisions of business.It also investigated the effects of carbon emission on industrial structure adjustment and its mechanism from the aspects of the decoupling effect,input and output correlation effect,as well as the whole life cycle.The decoupling of Jiangsu overall industrial elasticity fluctuates around 0.4,which shows that it is in a weak decoupling state,with a rising ecological pressure.The effect of energy structure and industry scale on industrial emissions seems to be a positive drive,while energy intensity and industrial structure seem to be a negative one,with positive drive being greater than the negative effects.In the meantime,industry is the main factor contributing to the growth and decline in energy,while intensity is the main factor that leads to carbon reduction.In terms of input and output correlation effect,the exportation of carbon of the final demand makes the biggest share,accounting for about 47.2%,which helps ease a large amount of carbon emissions.Carbon footprint in investment and consumption accounted for 29.4%and 23.4%respectively.The four major industries of electric power,petroleum,chemical industry,metal smelting also made major contribution to the carbon footprint.The five industries of coal,oil,non-metallic products,electricity,transportation,posts and telecommunications communication,regardless of their speed of economic growth,have shown a strong carbon footprint expansion effect.In the aspect of whole life cycle emission effect,key pillar industries like electric power,petroleum,chemical industry,metal smelting,non-metallic products,textile and other key pillar industry,due to the correlation between the industry effect,all made their contributions in carbon emission,despite their differences in positioning,product,process,process and production activities.Under the medium scheme of the Jiangsu macroeconomic forecasting model,medium and slow economic growth in Jiangsu will become the norm,which will mean decreased energy consumption and carbon emission in the development,also a lower rate of consumption of resources and carbon emissions than the GDP growth,as well as a gradually decreased growth elasticity of consumption.In the near future,the interrelated dependence among Jiangsu economic growth,energy consumption,and carbon emissions will gradually be eliminated,going from the "coupling" to the "decoupling",and possibly going from the "weak decoupling" to the "decoupling".'The upgrading of industrial structure,energy structure optimization and improvements in energy saving technology are important factors for the decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions.Therefore,to implement a low-carbon oriented path,an overall layout of the industrial structure made according to production,demand,scale should be guaranteed,and special attention should be given to the key industries and the economic carriers.In the first place,production structure adjustment should be seen as the primary measure to control the intensity of carbon,including adjusting and optimizing industrial structure,reducing the proportion of high-energy consumption industry and high-carbon emission industry,and cultivating strategic emerging industries and the development of modern service industry.In the second place,it is important to optimize the structure of demand to cut down carbon emission,and to reduce the international transfer of carbon emissions.It is also crucial to encourage low carbon consumption,investment and export.Thirdly,it is crucial to grip the scale structure as configuration.In the regulation of industrial structure,special attention should also be paid to the competition between different industries and overcapacity within each industry,while managing the control of city boundary,scale of production capacity and scale.Fourthly,it is advised to make layout structure as an important supplement of low-carbon development,looking for the right low-carbon industry development space in order to ensure an ideal development pattern characterized by reasonable city collaboration,resource complementation,and industry collaboration.What's more,it is advised to focus on industry control as a core task and encourage the flow of carbon elements to those industries of faster productivity in order to raise the productivity of carbon.Last but not the least,it is important to make the park industry as a key carrier for the development of low carbon economy and to tighten the accreditation and appraisal of low-carbon standard in park industry,thus advancing the park circulation reform in order to build ecological industrial zones. |
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