Study On Regional Transfer Characteristics Analysis Of Construction Industry's Carbon Emissions And Allocation Of Emissions Reduction

As one of the countries in the world's largest carbon emissions,China has committed in the "12th Five-Year" plan,by 2020 China's carbon emissions per unit of GDP will drop 40%-45% than in 2005,it's a difficult challenge to complete the specific emission reduction target.As a pillar industry of the national economy and the key industries of energy saving and emission reduction,studying the development potential of carbon emission reduction strategy of the construction industry has become an inevitable requirement.In this paper,it combined the regional input output model and the modified hypothetical extraction method,and analysis of China's carbon correlation and carbon transfer characteristics of the regions and industries from 2002 to 2010;finally,with the 2020 emission reduction target,according to the responsibility principle,the paper constructed the carbon emission reduction decomposition system models of industrialization and regionalization in China,and discussed carbon reduction strategy of construction industry in china.The main research contents and results are as follows:First,according to the energy consumption of the provinces and cities of China energy statistical yearbook,the paper defined 20 types of energy consumption,and constructed the direct carbon emission model of eight regions and seventeen industries of the construction industry.Calculation results show that the mid region is the largest direct carbon emission area,Beijing and Tianjin areas at least;the highest carbon intensity region and industry are the northwest regional power,gas and steam and hot water tap water production and supply industry(14);and the mid region,the southern coastal region and northwest region are three most potential regions of the construction industry's direct carbon emission reduction.Second,Based on the inter regional input-output model,the paper are analyzed carbon correlation of construction industry in the region and inter-regional with other industries through the total carbon correlation,internal effect,mixed effect,net forward correlation correlation,net backward correlation,net transfer,demand carbon emissions and output carbon emissions.On the regional level,it's found that the mid region had the greatest impact on the whole economic system,and was the most important carbon input and output region;On the industrial level,it is found that the construction industry(15)had the greatest impact on the whole system,had little carbon emissions,belonged to the downstream industry.Third,based on the regional input-output model,the paper estimated the output value transfer and the carbon transfer of China's construction industry in the eight regions and seventeen industrial sectors.The study found that almost all of the eight regions implied carbon transfer in the region,rarely met transfer amount in other areas;whether the region or regional carbon transfer,the greater implied into-carbon contribution industry for the construction industry is metal smelting and products industry(9);the larger out of carbon contribution industry is the service industry(17).Fourth,to achieve the predictive control from the carbon intensity to the total carbon emissions,and then to the sub regional emission reduction target allocation.According to China's emission reduction targets in 2020,using the average method and scenario analysis method,the paper constructed the carbon emission reduction responsibility system decomposition models of industrialization and regionalization in China,analyzed carbon emission reduction targets and the corresponding responsibility of China's construction industry under three different scenarios.The study found that the mid region should bear the greatest responsibility in China's construction industry emission reduction;in the southern coastal region and northwest region,power,steam and hot water,gas tap water production and supply industry(14)was the largest carbon emission reduction responsibility in construction industry;in the other six areas,metal smelting and carbon products industry(9)was the largest carbon emission reduction responsibility in construction industry.Finally,the results provided the decision-making basis for the implementation of sub-regional and Sub-sectors emission reduction allocation in construction industry.