Research Of Food Safety Risk Assessment And Early Warning Method

Food safety is a significant strategic question which has a strong impact on the national economy development and people's livelihood.Meanwhile it is an important part of national security as well.The Chinese government always attaches importance to food safety issues.With the widespread use of new food processing chemicals and new technologies,how the potential risk factors can be identified scientifically and systematically and food safety risks can be accurately evaluated is one of the problems to be urgently solved in the food industry.Food safety risk assessment involves not only traditional analysis and modeling of assessment methods in computer science,but also the knowledge of supply chain management and other management disciplines.Even some biological and chemical hazards factors in food need to be analyzed so that the theory of food disciplines should be involved as well.So Food Safety risk assessment is an interdisciplinary research.In this paper,the characteristics of the food supply chain were firstly studied to determine the structure of the food supply chain.It is mainly divided into raw material production,food processing,storage and consumption four sectors.Then according to the HACCP system,the significances of biological,chemical and physical potential hazards have been analysed in detail.Critical control points were determined to establish a multi-level,multi-index food safety risk assessment index system.Secondly,according to the relevant laws,regulations and industry standards of food,the critical limits of all indicators were determined.Then use AHP based on interval estimation to determine the right indicators for food safety risk assessment index system weight,using Hidden Markov Model for risk assessment,and dairy products as an example simulation,calculate risk levels of the supply chain.Finally,we make food safety risk early warning studies from two aspects:the index limits and risk assessment,the probability of occurrence of a high index value.And we also work for the country to improve food management proposals to strengthen the food safety regulatory process.Finally,taking dairy products as an example,accomplish the development of food safety risk assessment and early warning system.