Study On Evolution Of Vehicle Emissions In Shandong Province

Since the reform and opening-up,regional and complex air pollution has become a typical and serious problem in Shandong province due to high-speed growth of the vehicle population.On the basis of establishment of vehicle emission inventory,we can assessed characteristics of vehicle pollution,analyzed driving factors of vehicle emission,and taken appropriate measures to control vehicle exhaust.In this paper,we developed vehicle emission inventory from 2000 to 2014 and analyzed vehicle pollution characteristics at the beginning,considering operation characteristics of vehicle in Shandong province.Then,using the factor decomposition method of vehicle emission based on LMDI,changes in vehicle emissions were broken down to the technique effect,mileage effect,structure effect and scale effect.Finally,effects and co-benefits of vehicle emission control measures in 2020 were assessed based on scenario analysis.From results of the vehicle emission inventory,the total vehicle emissions of NO_X,PM₁₀,CO₂,CH₄ and N₂O increased from 177.0 Gg,12.4 Gg,19239.7 Gg,11.3 Gg and 0.6 Gg to 513.8 Gg,29.5 Gg,138419.5 Gg,15.3 Gg and 3.9 Gg from 2000 to 2014,respectively.However,emissions of CO and NMVOC decreased from 1734.5 Gg and 277.9 Gg to 1723.3 Gg and 234.2 Gg during this period,respectively.From view of total emission trends during the study period,vehicle emissions of CO,NMVOC and CH₄ firstly increased and then decreased,NO_X and PM₁₀ sharply increased at first and flatten later,CO₂ has maintained rapid growth,and N₂O showed a trend of fluctuation.From emission contribution of vehicle types point,PCs and MCs were the major contributors to CO,NMVOC and CH₄,HDTs was the primary source of NO_X and PM₁₀,CO₂ mainly came from PCs and HDTs,while PCs and LDVs were main sources of N₂O.From emission contribution of regions point,high vehicle emission pollution regions were Jinan,Qingdao,Yantai,Weifang and Linyi.CO and NMVOC emissions decreased in some cities,but NO_X and PM₁₀ emissions increased in all cities during the study period.For spatial distribution,high densities of vehicle emissions were on the eastern and central areas in Shandong.In general,vehicle emissions are more concentrated in the city centers than surrounding areas.Results of factor decomposition show that scale effect was the most important driving effect for all kinds of pollutant except N₂O.The primary driving effect for the pollutant was structure effect.Technique effect was a key inhibitory effect for most kinds of vehicle emission pollution.Scale effect was driving effect for all type of pollutants in every year,which contributed great to vehicle emission at early stage and smaller during latter period.In most cases,contribution of technique effect to curb emissions was weak at early and became increasingly important over time.According results of scenario analysis,the emissions of CO,NMVOC,NO_X,PM₁₀,CO₂,CH₄ and N₂O from the vehicle fleet will be 1429.1 Gg,209.0 Gg,627.1 Gg,33.7 Gg,230470.7 Gg,15.8 Gg and 5.1 Gg,respectively,under basic scenario in 2020.Under the single control measurement scenario,updated emission standard and eliminating yellow label vehicle are effective in emission reduction.Routine measurement scenario could reduce most vehicle pollution effectively,and integrated measurement scenario will achieve optimum results.Results of Co-benefits assessment show that updated emission standard and eliminating yellow label vehicle have better emission reductions of conventional pollutants than greenhouse gases?GHGs?.However,popularize public transport,generalize electric cars and improve driving conditions reduce more GHGs than conventional pollutants.Emission reductions of conventional pollutants higher than GHGs under routine measurement scenario and integrated measurement scenario,with co-benefits for the latter are finer than the former.