Risk Management Of PPP Project In Sewage Treatment

The reform of the financial investment and financing mechanism has increasingly become the decisive role in the allocation of resources in the market and an important part of promoting national governance capacity and governance system modernization.The promotion of PPP model has become a major attempt to reform the institutional mechanisms.In the practice of infrastructure PPP projects,the sewage treatment plant is an early introduction of social capital in China,to carry out PPP model practice projects.With the importance of environmental protection in our country,the demand for construction of sewage treatment plants is increasing day by day.However,due to the shortage of local construction funds and the lack of relevant management experience,the construction of sewage treatment plants is facing difficulties.PPP model through the introduction of social capital,can effectively alleviate the project's financial pressure,improve management efficiency.However,due to the large scale of investment in PPP projects,the long duration of cooperation and the complicated interests of related stakeholders,the various risk factors of the project are extensive and complicated,which leads to the inability of the project participants to obtain the expected investment income and the enthusiasm of social capital investment.Therefore,how to effectively identify,evaluate and control the PPP project risk is to promote the PPP model must face the problem,but also investors focus on the issue.From the perspective of real options,this paper puts forward the corresponding risk management strategies and constructs a risk management process including risk identification,risk sharing and subsequent risk mitigation strategy design.Secondly,based on the net present value method,the real option method is introduced,and the real option value is calculated.The Monte Carlo simulation is used to quantitatively analyze the multifactor risk.Finally,taking the project of a township sewage treatment plant as an example,through the analysis of the project risk,we can put forward the risk management strategy,and then identify the real option contained in these risk management strategies,and introduce the real option method to quantitatively analyze the risk of the project influences.The boundary condition of the project option value is obtained through the sensitivity analysis,and the social capital is provided with the basis for the negotiation of the franchise agreement with the government and the relevant risk management proposal is put forward.In this paper,from the perspective of social capital,standing on the investor's position to study the risk of PPP projects in sewage treatment plants.First,through the statistical analysis of historical data,practical experience and expert opinion,the PEST analysis method is used to identify and classify the risk factors of PPP project in sewage treatment plant,and qualitatively evaluate the identified 45 risk factors to identify key risk factors.From the perspective of social capital,investors should pay attention to the key risk factors of PPP project in sewage treatment plant.Based on the different characteristics of the whole life cycle of the sewage project,the paper puts forward all the risk factors involved in the different stages of the PPP project of the sewage treatment plant,and puts forward the flexible risk management strategy which can take the real option for the key risk factors,And summed up a new risk management process framework combining traditional risk coping strategies and real option flexible management strategies.Through the literature review and theoretical analysis to lay the foundation of this study,the actual case for the study of the case,the case analysis.In this paper,the traditional net present value method and the real option method are used to evaluate the project.The Monte Carlo simulation method is used to quantitatively evaluate the risk factors,and a feasible domain is established through the sensitivity analysis.It provides the basis and suggestions for the project social capital and the government department's business negotiation and the risk control points in the operation process.