An Analysis On China Carbon Emission Environmental Kuznets Curve And Structure Effect

This thesis uses a different method of regional division,dividing China into high emission-high efficiency(HE-HE)region,high emission-low efficiency(HE-LE)region,low emission-high efficiency(LE-HE)region,and low emission-low efficiency(LE-LE)region,based on emission indicator(the total amount of emission and its proportion among the whole nation)and efficiency indicator(carbon emission intensity and per capita carbon emission).Then a dynamic analysis of the emission feature of different regions is made.Two conclusions can be made based on an overview of China's carbon emission feature.From the vertical perspective,the growth rate of carbon emission in some regions,especially in HE-HE region,has slowed down.This is similar to the trend of OECD countries.From the horizontal perspective,the center of gravity for carbon emission has been shifted from HE-HE region,which is the most economically advanced region in China,to the other regions.This is also similar to the trend that high carbon intensity industry is shifting from OECD countries to Non-OECD countries.And many empirical research on the existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC)among OECD countries and Non-OECD countries have shown that EKC exists among OECD countries,but does not exist among Non-OECD countries.Based on this feature,this thesis explores the existence of EKC among different regions in China.Classic EKC theory mainly focuses on the relationship between economic growth and the environment.This is because classic EKC assumes that the other factors which pose influence on the environment are closely associated with economic growth.But this thesis believes that structure effect is not so closely associated with economic growth.Structural effect includes industry structure effect and energy structure effect.So this thesis adds two variables which represent industry structure and energy structure respectively into classic EKC model.Through traditional OLS estimation,FMOLS estimation and DOLS estimation based on the panel data of 27 provinces from 1995 to 2014,two conclusions can be made.First,carbon emission EKC does not exist in China,or in any specific regions of China.Second,on a national scale,in addition to economic growth,both industry structure and energy structure pose important influence on the changes of carbon emission.But on a regional scale,the effects of the two factors are very different.In HE-HE region,both the changes of industry structure and energy structure pose remarkable influence on the changes of carbon emission.In HE-LE region,industry structure play a dominant role in carbon emission.In LE-HE region,energy structure has the main influence.In LE-LE region,both the changes of industry structure and energy structure have significant influence on carbon emission.Based on this,this thesis puts forward that the difference of the influence of the two factors in various regions roots in the difference of factor endowments in these regions.And the reason why carbon emission EKC does not exist in China is that the problem of externality of carbon emission has not been solved yet.If China wants to make full use of factor endowments of different regions,market is the best choice.The government should mainly focus on solving the problem of externality,such as the allocation of carbon emission allowances,the establishment of pricing system and information disclosing system,the subsidies associated with fundamental research involved with new energy and the infrastructure construction associated with the application of new energy.