System Dynamic Simulation Of China's Industrial Structure Evolution And Carbon Emission Increase

In the world today,global warming and related issues are increasingly serious,and carbon emissions are the main cause of global warming.Since the reforming and opening up of Chinese economy,China has made remarkable achievements by more than 30 years continuous development.However,the level of carbon emissions has also been rising.As a result,China is facing severe forms of energy conservation and emission reduction.This article first briefly introduced the concept of industrial structure and related theories,the concept of industrial structure evolution and its laws,Environmental Kuznets Curve theory,and then briefly reviewed the evolution of the industrial structure and carbon emissions in major developed countries in the world.Research lays the foundation.In the empirical research,this article first reviewed the history of China's industrial structure development,and calculated China's carbon emissions over the years by collecting data released by the National Bureau of Statistics,which provided a comprehensive understanding of the history and current status of China's carbon emissions.Then,this article used the historical data of China's three years of production,calculated the Moore structural change values over the years,and used the curve fitting method to construct carbon emission EKC curves based on the changes of industrial structure,and explore the profound link between carbon emissions and changes in industrial structure.Subsequently,the EKC curve model was extended to provinces,and the differences in the industrial structure and carbon emissions of representative provinces in the eastern,central and western regions were studied.Based on empirical research,this paper uses a system dynamics approach to build a system dynamic simulation model that includes subsystems for industry,economy,energy consumption,carbon emissions,population,and technological progress.The mechanism of the formation of the EKC curve and the role of high-tech industry development and scientific and technological progress in carbon emission reduction were simulated.After careful investigation and analysis,the policy variable factors of capacity-restructuring on the supply side were added in 2014 to improve the modeland verify it.The formation mechanism of the EKC curve and the reason for the arrival of the carbon emission peak time.Through the above studies,the main conclusions of this paper are as follows:First,China has undergone two carbon emission EKC curve processes,and both of these curves have their own inflection points.Second,the two EKC curves have an inverted U-shaped curve shape,and carbon emission peaks have appeared in2014-2015.Different provinces have different forms of EKC curve;Third,policy factors have a very big impact on the changes in carbon emissions trends,the EKC curve inflection point in 2014-2015 appears to be related to the implementation of the supply-side structural reforms and capacity-reduction strategies.Based on the model's good simulation results,this paper makes a forecast analysis of future carbon emissions and industrial structure evolution trends under several different policy scenarios.In the end,all of the above studies were integrated,and their own suggestions on energy conservation,emission reduction and upgrading of industrial structure were put forward,and future prospects were made.