Research On Accident Prediction Model And Early Warning Method Based On Potential Hazards Report

In recent years,the situation of production safety in China is severe and complicated,although the number of accidents has declined,but the major accidents occur frequently,the national production safety situation is not optimistic.It also exposed the existence of a large number of hidden dangers in the work of production safety,unreasonable regulation,preventive measures are not in place,not timely warning and other major issues.Under this background,the key is the research on accident prediction and early warning,to strengthen the research of production safety,study and master the accident occurrence and development,distribution and characteristics,especially the relationship between the accident and hidden danger.Heinrich,a famous American Security Engineer,has come to an important conclusion by analyzing a large number of accidents,that is,the ratio of death,serious injury,minor injury and no injury accident is 1:29:300.In order to prevent the occurrence of major accidents,it is necessary to reduce and eliminate the accident without injury,but it does not point out that we should pay attention to the hidden danger,that is,it does not pay attention to the root of the accident.If people do not pay attention to the Intrinsic safety,the accident can not be avoid fundamentally.so Heinrich method has some limitations and shortcomings,which need to deepen and expand,starting from the hazards,improve the system safety,thus reducing accidents greatly.This article starts research from the status quo analysis and theoretical research of accident prediction and hidden dangers.Through a large number of domestic and foreign literature on accident prediction and hidden danger,summarizes the domestic and international research situation of accident prediction and the deficiency of the traditional "Heinrich rule".,On this basis,through the statistical data of China in recent years,established the expansion of the "accident lighthouse model" ? the regression model of serious accidents? deaths? general accidents with hazards,and to establish a prediction model of hazards,to predict the hazards of China in the next few years.In addition,work out the control target of deaths and hazards in 2020 through the "13th Five-Year" plan,and then put forward a set of methods for early warning.In order to verify the research thinking of this paper,that is scientific and practical,this paper selects the hidden dangers data of a company to analyse,through the analyse of the data from 2012 to 2016,established the risk prediction model,to predict the next few years' hazards,on this basis,according to the hazards of first 4 months of 2017,determine if to warn.So as to the accidents are prevented more scientific and timely.