Research On Assessment Of Regional Disaster Loss Risk Based On Elements At Risk

Emergency events,especially the concurrent disaster and chain-style disaster,occurred frequently and numerously damage on life and economy followed with them.Meanwhile,the complexity and diversity of regions which disaster acts on,make disaster loss being in uncertainty.Research on disaster loss risk will promote disaster prevention and mitigation with much pertinency to minimize loss better and protect people's lives and property.Due to various disasters and regions,it is more appropriate to understand overall situation and mechanism both on disaster loss risk.So,this paper focuses on the vital factor–elements at risk to investigate disaster loss risk within disaster loss data and its causes.Firstly,recognize development and evolution mechanism of disaster loss and give a summary on the form of damaged elements and their damage states based on disaster system theory and typical disaster cases.By introducing land use types,analysis regional features of elements at risk in quantity and layout with data of urban construction land after identifying correspondence of elements and land use types and then discuss the regional difference of vulnerability of elements at risk.Secondly,illustrate definition of disaster loss risk,and present two ways to assess disaster loss risk and framework on this study.On the one hand,evaluate regional vulnerability with historical data in the view of “input-output” at macro level because of the crucial influence of vulnerability for disaster loss risk.On the other hand,pay attention to destructiveness of damaged elements and construct a model for disaster loss risk to analysis potential loss,based on the generation mechanism of disaster loss at micro level.Thirdly,assessment for regional vulnerability on the 31 provinces(Municipalities)in China is conducted by a three-stage Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA)and it could eliminate influences of natural and humanistic factors(such as danger level of disaster,degree of economic development and disaster relief materials)on regional vulnerability.Meanwhile,the results are without interference of random errors,so it is more objective and could be helpful to understand regional risk more correctly.Finally,investigate destructiveness of elements at risk based on hazardous basics,namely material,energy,information,and then analyze the acceleration of elements at risk and their corrections for loss spread and identify rules of disaster loss diffusion with destruction mode of elements at risk.Discuss the potential threat resulted by damaged elements through a disaster loss risk assessment model,and the model tested by different simulation scenarios is effective and helpful to predict possible danger for diverse regions.Ways of empirical research and model construction are adopted to recognize disaster loss risk for different regions in this paper.Disaster system are treated as a whole and regional diversity and role of elements in them could be taken into account fully.The results are contributive to disaster prevention in advance and development prediction after disaster occurs.