Research On Assessment Of Disaster Loss Risk Based On Elements At Risk's Regional Characteristics

When the society and economy are developing rapidly,the frequency of various kinds of disasters has gradually increased,causing a mass of loss to the humankind.Under such severe background,the research on emergency management,especially the assessment of disaster loss risk in advance,is urgent badly to reduce all kinds of disasters that bring huge losses to the people and reduce the risk of disaster losses.Based on this background,this paper carries out the evaluation and research work on disaster loss risk based on the elements at risk in the disaster system.Firstly,the theoretical basis of the research of this paper(such as disaster system theory,disaster risk definition and assessment theory)is introduced in detail.Meanwhile,the research object of this paper,namely the regional characteristics of elements at risk,is defined properly.Moreover,the categories of elements at risk are given to make clear the research scope of elements at risk of the region.Then,the fragile characteristics of the elements at risk are discussed.On this basis,the cluster analysis of regional elements at risk's fragile characteristics is carried on by collecting relevant economic and population data,using SOM.And the result reflects that the differences of our country in different parts of the disaster loss risk level because of the differences of fragile characteristics of elements at risk to some extent.This explains furtherly that,when formulating the regional contingency strategies,it should be ajusted flexibly.Secondly,the correlation characteristics among the elements at risk are studied.The correlation type and degree among elements at risk are different due to the category of elements at risk and disaster types,hazardous radius,etc.This part extracts the correlations and the loss chains of elements at risk from certain typical emergency.Based on this,the possible state of elements at risk,namely normal,damaged and destroyed,are summarized.Then the risk assessment of regional disaster losses is completed from the macro level.Finally,based on the analysis of elements at risk's fragility and corrlation,the regional disaster loss risk assessment model is embodied furtherly.Then according to the above analysis of regional characteristics and correlations of elements at risk in China,different simulation scenarios are presented to verify the effectiveness of the disaster loss risk assessment model.In this paper,the fragile characteristics and correlated characteristics of elements at risk are studied.And we discuss the relationship between these two aspects and the regional disaster loss risk.The results can be used to provide a new thought to understand the disaster risk,and to formulate proper contingency measures for regional disaster events.