Study On Dynamic Characteristics And Driving Forces Of Carbon Footprint In Chongqing

As an old industrial base in Southwest China,Chongqing has long been dominated by coal based energy consumption structure,it promoted the rapid economic development as well as serious environmental pollution and a large amount of carbon emissions.In order to promote the Chongqing city to achieve emission reduction targets as soon as possible,the paper based on the IPCC carbon footprint related research methods,1997-2013 carbon footprint in Chongqing city were estimated from the time of dynamic analysis;then combining LDMI Di index decomposition method,analyzed the driving force on the carbon footprint of Chongqing City.At the same time,According to GM(1,1)grey prediction model to predict the future trend of Chongqing City carbon footprint;finally,Base on the characteristics of the dynamic changes of carbon footprint in Chongqing City and the results of analysis and prediction,this paper puts forward some feasible countermeasures for energy-saving and emission-reduction in Chongqing.1.The dynamic of total carbon footprint.Since the establishment of the municipality directly under the central government in 1997,the total carbon footprint of Chongqing has been increasing rapidly with different rates in different periods.According to the change trend,the total carbon footprint of Chongqing can be divided into three periods : 1997-2003,Chongqing,total carbon footprint in fluctuation,but the overall change is small,the total between 6320.41-7657.25 million tons;2003-2012 years,with the rapid development of economy of Chongqing City,the total carbon footprint showed a significant growth trend,the number soared from 6846.25 million tons in 2003 to 23733.45 million tons in 2011,the growth rate reached 245.75%;In 2011-2014,Total carbon footprint of Chongqing showing a clear downward trend,the number decreased from 23733.45 million tons to 17998.62 million tons,the proportion decreased at 24.16%,the pressure on ecological environment is gradually reduced.2.The dynamic of carbon bearing capacity.Carbon bearing capacity of Chongqing has been increased during 1997-2014.The carbon sequestration of forest has become the main part of carbon bearing capacity,and the amount of carbon sequestration and carbon sequestration in grassland is relatively small.From the quantitative point of view,the carbon bearing capacity growth from 3282.03 million tons to 3914.06 million tons the increase rate of about 19.26%;The carbon of grassland growth from 31.30 million tons to 41.17 million tons,the rate of increase of 37.96%;The crop carbon bearing capacity slightly decreased by 6.64%.On the whole,there are fluctuations of carbon bearing capacity of Chongqing,but the overall maintained a slightly increasing trend.3.The carbon footprint pressure change.1997-2014,because the carbon footprint of Chongqing city grew faster,while the carbon bearing capacity of slow growth rate,the net carbon footprint remained the same trend with the carbon footprint of the positive,the pressure of energy-saving emission reduction of Chongqing City getting harder.From the carbon footprint per unit area and carbon footprints,Chongqing 3.56 times per capita carbon emissions reached the highest standards in response to climate warming,12.92 times,carbon footprint per unit area reached the highest standards of climate change thus,whether the carbon footprint per unit area and carbon footprint,are far beyond the limits of ecological environment.From the carbon emission index,carbon emission index W increased from 0.08 in 1997 to 0.21 in 2014.The future with the further development of Chongqing social economy,resources and energy demand may further increase the level of carbon emissions of Chongqing city.4.Study on driving forces of carbon footprint in Chongqing.Using LMDI index decomposition method to analyze the influencing factors of the energy carbon footprint in Chongqing City and the results show that: 1997-2014,Chongqing energy carbon footprint increased from 6531.22 million tons to 15159.49 million tons,the growth process fluctuated,reaching a peak 21626.15 t million tons in 2011.Among these factors,the factors of economic development is the main driving factors of Chongqing City carbon footprint growth,the factors of economic development in Chongqing city energy carbon footprint increased20120.06 million tons,accounting for the total proportion of 218.89% driving factors;followed by demographic factors,with the increase of population and the improvement of people's living standard,Chongqing city with the levels of carbon footprint to improve the population factors,increase the energy carbon footprint of 943.83 million tons,the total driving factors accounted for 10.29%;the energy structure factors to promote energy carbon footprint increased 89.43 million tons in driving energy carbon footprint factors,and play a weak positive driving effect,the total proportion of 0.97% driving factors;the decrease of energy intensity is the fundamental cause of reduction Chongqing City,carbon footprint,energy intensity to promote Chongqing energy carbon footprint down-11961.50 million tons,accounting for the total proportion of driving factors-130.13%.5.Countermeasures and suggestions.Combined with the analysis results of the above carbon footprint,from the trans formation of economic development mode,adjust the industrial structure,improving energy efficiency and structure,improve the proportion of clean energy use,increase carbon sinks,establishing sound regulatory system and other aspects of Chongqing city to carry out energy-saving emission reduction and development of low carbon economy and puts forward some countermeasures.