Spatial-temporal Effect And Early Warning Research On The Provincial Energy-economy-environment System Coordination Degree

At present,the contradiction amongs China's economic development,energy and environment is more prominent,and the sustainable development of society is threatened.Therefore,it is of practical and theoretical significance to study the coordinated development of three systems of energy,economy and environment.First,from the three dimensions of energy,economy and environment,this paper constructs the evaluation index system of the provincial 3E system coordination degree.Based on the “comprehensive distance coordination degree evaluation model”,this paper calculates the coordination degree of 30 provinces' 3E system coordination degree in 2006~2014.And the empirical analysis turns out: The overall 3E system coordination degree in our country is on the rise.In 2010,it was a turning point from severe maladjustment to moderate maladjustment.Different provinces have different kinds of development trends in 3E system coordination degree.Secondly,the variation coefficient method,ESDA and spatial Markov chain method are used to analyze the spatial-temporal effect and evolution trend of the provincial 3E system coordination degree.The regional difference of the provincial 3E system coordination degree is studied by means of variation coefficient method.The results show that: Overall,the development of the provincial 3E system coordination degree in different provinces has a tendency to reduce.According to the division of the 6 regions,there are different trends in the coordination of different provinces in different regions with the change of time.According to the division of the 6 regions,there are different development trends in the provincial 3E system coordination degree between different provinces which in the same regions with the change of time.The spatial pattern and spatial correlation of the provincial 3E system coordination degree are studied by using ESDA method.The results show that the provincial 3E system coordination degre has a positive spatial correlation from the view of global and has different spatial agglomeration patterns,in which the northwest and southwest regions are “L-L agglomeration” pattern,and the East China and Southern China region are “H-H agglomeration” pattern from the view of local.The spatial clustering pattern of 2006~2014 are compared year by year to analyse the development trend of the spatial clustering models of the coordination degree of provincial 3E system coordination degree.The results show that the number of provinces with “L-L agglomeration” pattern is decreased.And “H-H agglomeration” pattern has gradually spread to the south and the number of provinces with “H-H agglomeration” pattern is increased.Then,the spatial Markov chain method is used to study the state transition probability of the provincial 3E system coordination degree under the influence of its spatial lag.The results show that the development trend of the provincial 3E system coordination degree's spatial lag has an influenced on it,which is mainly reflected in the higher spatial lag.The spatial-temporal evolution trend of spatial clustering patterns of the provincial 3E system coordination degree is studied by LISA Markov chain method.It is found that the relative stabilities of four clustering patterns are different: The “H-H agglomeration” pattern has the highest stability while the “L-L agglomeration” pattern has the lowiest.At the same time,from the classification of its transfer path,the main transfer path of the spatial clustering pattern of the province 3E system coordination degree of in the is the saturation transfer path,that is,the spillover effect exists in the province 3E system coordination degree.Then,based on the spatial-temporal effects,a dynamic spatial panel data model is constructed to predict the provincial 3E system coordination degree in the next 5 years.The results show that the province 3E system coordination degree in each province will be increasing year by year.In the scope of heavy alarm level gradually is going to be narrowed to the west,and will be replaced by the medium alarm level and light alarm level.In the light alarm level of the regions will continue to expand,and spread to inland and north.By 2019,there will be four provincesti be first to achieve no alarm level,namely Shandong,Zhejiang,Fujian and Jiangxi all of which are part of the East China region.