Research On The Distribution Of Carbon Quota And Its Impact On China's Coal Space Transport Pattern

At the Copenhagen Climate Conference,China proposed a 40%-45% per unit of GDP reduction in carbon emissions in 2020.To ensure the achievement of China's carbon target for 2020,on January 5,2017,the National Energy Board issued the "Energy Development of " thirteen five " plan " proposed that clean energy will be " thirteen " energy supply increase in the main body,in the " thirteen " period,the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will increase to more than 15%,natural gas consumption than gravity 10%,the proportion of coal consumption fell below 58% in 2020 to control the total energy consumption in 5 billion tons of standard coal within.The implementation of carbon reduction is necessary for the allocation of carbon quotas,and the current impact on the allocation of carbon quota is mainly focused on the principles of distribution,methods,influencing factors,the impact on the carbon market transactions,etc.,and on the allocation of carbon quota China's coal space transport pattern of the impact of research is still blank..Based on the theory of historical distribution of international carbon emission quotas,this paper constructs carbon containing three indexes,including historical cumulative emission,industrial structure intensity and technological progress,in the light of the path of carbon demand,Quota allocation model,based on the total amount of coal consumption in 2020,through the different factors of the weight coefficient set different scenarios,based on the principle of protection and incentive for context comparison,and ultimately determine the regional carbon allocation allocation program.On the basis of this,taking thermal coal as an example,the IPCC inventory method is used to calculate the demand for thermal coal in various regions under the carbon emission reduction situation.At the same time,the regression model is constructed to forecast the total coal supply and the total demand under non-carbon emission quotas.And then use the theory of spatial equilibrium model to construct the space transportation pattern of China's coal market.Through the comparison of carbon-free emission reduction situation and carbon emission reduction situation,the optimization of coal transportation pattern in China is carried out.In this paper,the results of carbon quota allocation and coal market spatial pattern optimization show that:(1)Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai,Hainan,Gansu and Ningxia under the conditions of historical distribution,they are in the competitive advantage in the consumption of coal quota competition,Hebei,Inner Mongolia,Liaoning,Shandong and Henan and other places at a disadvantage;(2)From the supply side,Liaoji 3,Liaoji 4 and other regions of the steam coal in the market competition at a disadvantage,and Shanxi 7,Shanxi 9 and other areas in the market competition advantage.From the demand side,the transport of thermal coal mainly points to Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Guangdong,Fujian and other eastern and southern regions,indicating that these areas of coal demand is more intense,higher demand for thermal coal prices;(3)Through different contexts,There is the possibility of space arbitrage in the interchange of coal,the competitive advantage of different types of steam coal in different supply areas to different demand areas is different.This paper argues that under the carbon emission environment,China's allocation of carbon quotas should take into account the principle of fairness and efficiency,encourage enterprises to carry out industrial upgrading and technological progress.Local governments should abolish the protection of local coal enterprises,improve the coal market trading mechanism,Coal market trading platform to improve the transparency of the information on the coal market,coal enterprises in accordance with market rules for transactions,so that social benefits to maximize.