| The low-carbon economy has become the consensus of human development.However,the increasing carbon emissions have gradually become the biggest obstacle to the sustainable development of society,which will become a major issue facing human development.As the world's largest energy consumer and carbon dioxide emitter,China faces enormous pressure to reduce emissions.Due to China's vast territory,the resource endowment and the economic development stage are obviously different,and it is urgent to establish a new emission reduction model.Therefore,it is imperative to promote the development of regional coordinated emission reduction.At present,the carbon trading mechanism is considered to be the most effective market regulation mechanism for achieving emission reduction targets.China officially launched the national carbon trading market at the end of 2017.However,as far as the current implementation is concerned,China's carbon trading market is at an early stage,the system is developing slowly,and the implementation effect is not optimistic.As one of the key issues in the construction of the carbon market,the issue of the initial allocation mechanism of carbon emissions is still unclear.Therefore,scientific and rational allocation of initial carbon allowances,accurate understanding of the regional coordinated emission reduction mechanism under the initial allocation of carbon emissions,and improvement of coordinated emission reduction levels are important foundations for achieving regional carbon emission reduction targets and promoting regional sustainable development.In order to solve the above problems,this paper sets up different carbon emission initial quota scenarios for simulation to explore the impact of initial carbon allocation on regional synergistic emission reduction system,in order to find a most suitable and effective initial to promote regional coordinated emission reduction development.Carbon quota scheme.Firstly,guided by system theory,the system dynamics model is used to construct the regional synergistic emission reduction system dynamics model to determine the influencing factors of the regionalsynergistic emission reduction system.The baseline method is used to calculate the regional initial carbon allowance under different standards,and then the initial The carbon quota is introduced into the system dynamics model to analyze the interaction of the factors affecting the regional synergistic emission reduction system under its influence.Secondly,from the perspective of system evolution,based on the connotation of the regional synergistic emission reduction system and the analysis of self-organization characteristics,based on the three state variables of regional synergistic emission reduction comparative advantage,regional synergistic emission reduction linkage,and regional synergistic emission reduction effort level The Haken model of the evolution of the regional synergistic emission reduction system refines the internal mechanism of the evolution of the coordinated regional emission reduction system.Thirdly,based on the identification parameters of the regional synergistic emission reduction system,the regional synergistic emission reduction levels under different initial carbon allowance scenarios are measured,and the impact of different initial carbon allowances on regional coordinated emission reduction development is explored.The results show that:(1)The evolutionary order parameters of the regional synergistic emission reduction system under the basic scenario are the linkages of regional coordinated emission reduction evolution.There is no synergistic effect between the regional synergistic emission reduction link and the regional synergistic emission reduction comparative advantage;under the carbon emission initial carbon allowance scenario,the regional synergistic emission reduction comparative advantage becomes the order parameter of the drive system evolution,the regional synergistic emission reduction comparative advantage and emission reduction A synergy has been formed between the levels of effort.(2)The regional synergistic emission reduction linkage has a positive impact on the regional synergistic emission reduction comparative advantage,but the synergistic emission reduction comparative advantage has no positive effect on the synergistic emission reduction linkage,and the system development process is slow.Under the initial carbon allowance scenario,the comparative advantages of regional synergistic emission reduction and the degree of emission reduction efforts have positively promoted each other.(3)The development pattern of “eastern > central > western ” appears under the basic scenario.Under the initial carbon emission quota scenario,the regional coordinated emission reduction development pattern was changed to “East > West > Central”.From the perspective of evolutionary trend,the potential function curve changes from“W” to “M”.In the case of non-carbon quotas,the regional synergistic emission reduction system evolves to obtain the minimum value at Rr=±11192.69,and the system develops steadily;The evolution of the system is only a large value,the system may be abrupt due to slight fluctuations in the regional synergistic emission reduction advantages,and the development is extremely unstable,but the increase in carbon quotas has alleviated the unstable state.(4)Under the situation of no carbon allowance,the scores of regional coordinated emission reduction levels are generally low,and the gap of regional coordinated development levels is obvious.Under the initial carbon emission quota policy,the scores of regional synergistic emission reduction levels have been greatly improved,and the gap in coordinated development in the eastern,central and western regions has narrowed,the first-mover advantage in the eastern region has slightly weakened,and the advantage in the western region has been obvious.(5)Under the scenario of carbon-free quotas,regional coordinated emission reductions are developing continuously but the process is slow.The initial allocation of carbon emissions has a differential impact on the development of regional coordinated emission reduction systems.The 20% baseline initial carbon emission quota is more reasonable and can promote Regional synergy emission reduction development process. |
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