Research On The Quota Allocation Of Carbon Emissions In Provincial-Level Under The Total Control Target

Countries around the world have recognized the importance of energy conservation under the background of prominent energy crisis and serious atmospheric pollution.Since 2006,China has become the world's largest country on carbon emissions and carbon reduction pressure is also increasing.According to the specific circumstances,China has twice made a commitment to the world: carbon intensity is decreased by 40%-45% in 2020 and 60%-65% in 2030,compared with 2005.China needs urgently to control carbon emission from the current measures gradually to the absolute control under the background of total control target.Research on the quota allocation of carbon emissions in provincial–level can not only promote regional cooperation,stimulate emission reduction potential,strictly control the total greenhouse gas emissions,but also provide basic support for the carbon emissions trading market.Presently,the principle of carbon emission rights distribution is basically agreed,but what is the optimal allocation of carbon emission rights has not yet been determined.Based on this fact,we explore inter-provincial carbon emission allocation methods in this paper.The research work and conclusions are as follows:(1)Calculation and analysis of carbon emissions.This paper calculate the carbon emissions in China and the provinces,using carbon emissions model put up by IPCC,and then analyzes the carbon emissions status of China in the world and the status of carbon emissions in various provinces.The results show that China's cumulative carbon emission from 1965 to 2015 is 169.18 billion tons which accounts for 15.19% in world's total carbon emissions,with an average annual growth rate of 6.04%.China's total carbon emission is 9.15 billion tons,which accounts for 27.32% in the world.China's per capita carbon emission in 2015 is 6.68 tons,greater than the world average of 4.56 tons.Provinces are very different in economic development,energy consumption and carbon emissions,but these three variables show a strong correlation.Provinces with higher GDP number tends to consume more energy and emit larger carbon emissions.(2)Construct the index system of carbon emissions quota allocation.We research the factors affecting the differences of regional carbon emissions in 1995?2000?2005?2010 and 2013 and analyze the reasons of these affecting factors.Then under the two principles of fairness and efficiency,the quota allocation index system is constructed.The results show that population scale effect value,economic development effect value,industrial structure effect value,energy intensity effect value,energy structure effect value and carbon emission coefficient effect can not only reflect the contribution of various factors to inter-provincial carbon emission differences but also respectively represent the inter-provincial differences in the population size,economic development,industrial structure,energy intensity,energy structure and carbon emissions coefficient.According to the principle of fairness and efficiency,the economic development effect and population scale effect are divided into negative indexes.The other indexes are divided into positive indexes.(3)Construct the quota allocation model of carbon emissions in provincial-level.Based on the index system,the entropy model is used to calculate the increment distribution ratio in three scenarios of focusing more on equity efficiency and the same attention on equity and efficiency.According to the commitment of carbon emission reduction in 2020 and the GDP development target in ?13th Five-Year Plan?,we can calculate the carbon emission in 2020 and the increment to 2013.At last we can calculate the carbon emission allocation of each province combining the increment allocation ratio and the carbon emission increment.The results show that incremental allocation results are not very different in these three scenarios,indicating that the quota allocation ratio based on the information entropy weight model is objective.(4)Verification of carbon emissions allocation in provincial-level.We compare the carbon emission proportion of each province between 2020 based on the allocation result and historical years.Results show that the two proportions are basically consistent.However,in Liaoning,Hebei,Shanxi,Henan,Hubei and Jiangsu the proportion of 2020 is less than historical year,which suggest pressure more on these six provinces in future carbon emission reduction process.(5)Guarantee mechanism on carbon emissions quota.In order to ensure the effective implementation of carbon emission quota allocation results,we research the relative literature and put forward suggestions,respectively,from the macro and the micro perspective.