Study On Influence Factors And Spatial Difference Of Carbon Emissions From Residental Consumption In China

Since the second half of the 20 Century,the environmental problems caused by carbon dioxide emissions have become the focus of the world gradually.Facing severe climate problems,on the one hand,China is an active participant in the global response to climate change.On the other hand,with the economy and consumption growing,China is under increasing pressure.In the past,China's emission reduction policy mainly related to the industrial sector.But the side benefit of this policy is descending,and emission reduction becoming more and more difficult.However,the ultimate goal of production is to consume.Thus,the increase in consumption brought by economic growth is the most fundamental reason for the increase in carbon emissions.China is in the process of rapid urbanization.There are contradictions not only between economic growth and energysaving emission reduction,but also between expanding consumption and energy-saving emission reduction.In addition,China's consumption patterns are moving to the direction of luxury and waste.Therefore,only analyzing the influence factors from the economy,population,industrial technology and consumption,can we reduce residents' carbon emissions,and reduce the pressure on China's carbon emissions.This paper first reviews the domestic and international literature of residents' consumption carbon emissions;summarizes the research of methods,influence factors and spatial characteristics and prediction,etc.Choosing the corresponding method and model,paper study the residents' consumption carbon emissions in China during 1990-2014,and make a prediction in 2030.Residents' consumption carbon emissions according to direct and indirect methods are divided into household energy carbon emissions and embedded carbon emissions of residents' consumption.by measuring the carbon emissions and quantitative analysis scale and structure of the two kind of residents' consumption carbon emissions,paper compares the development trend of the two.The study found,both were significantly increased;There is room for continuous improvement of household energy structure;Embedded carbon emissions of residents' consumption is bigger,and is gradually to the developmental change from necessity.Then,paper research on influence factors of residents' consumption carbon emissions.Separately on the basis of related research,paper selects factors and analyzes influence factors of residents' consumption carbon emissions through the STIRPAT model and structural decomposition analysis model.The study found,influence factors of household energy carbon emissions from big to small is: the energy structure,residents' consumption level,the urbanization rate,population scale and energy intensity,influence factors of residents' consumption embedded carbon emissions of the order is: carbon intensity,residents' consumption level,the production department production demand level,population scale and residents' consumption structure.There is a significant difference of regional economy in China.Therefore,influence factors of spatial characteristics of residents' consumption carbon emissions are analyzed.Firstly,study estimates carbon emissions in 30 provinces from 2007 to 2012,and analyzes they distribution through quarterback chart.Secondly,study makes spatial correlation diagnosis through Moran's index.Study found,household energy carbon emissions exists a spatial correlation,embedded carbon emissions of residents' consumption does not.Therefore,further analyzing household energy carbon emissions through spatial econometric model,paper draws the conclusion: space elements introduced to residents' consumption carbon emissions in China have a certain impact.Then,according to the result of the factors analysis,paper establish a system dynamics model for simulation,and quantitatively predicts residents' consumption carbon emissions in China from 2010 to 2030 through scenario analysis.The study found,according to the baseline scenario,China's residents' consumption carbon emissions will reach 1.96046 billion tons in 2030;Efficient technology innovation is a focus path to achieve carbon reduction of residents in China.Finally,combines with China's national conditions,paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations from the perspective of the economy,population,industrial technology and residents' consumption.