Simulation Analysis Of Traffic Carbon Tax Policy Effect Based On CGE Model

Carbon budget report shows that China's carbon emissions have exceeded the sum of the United States and Europe in 2016.As the world's largest carbon exporter,China has put forward a target that its carbon emissions will reach the peak in 2030,which means that we need to transform the economic to low-carbon green development.Compared with other industries,the carbon emission of transportation sector is growing at a rapid pace.Its carbon emission increases 4.8% per year while the whole society only increases 1.8%.In 2015 the transportation sector's carbon emissions has produced5% of the total carbon emissions,ranked second in the industry.To solve this problem,this paper explores the effect of carbon tax on Chinese transportation industry and the macro-economy to find the optimal carbon tax rate of society.It is of great significance to lead the economy and transportation industry to walk on low-carbon road.First of all,this paper analyzes the influence of carbon tax on macroeconomic,ecological environment and social welfare,and confirm the application of CGE model on the greenhouse gas emission control,energy use and environmental tax.Then this paper analyzes the current situation of transportation carbon emissions in China.According to the data,it was found that the transportation industry has been the second carbon emission industry.It can be seen that the imposition of carbon tax on the transport industry is both a policy requirement and realistic strategy.Then,according to the CGE model theory,this paper constructs production,income and savings,consumption demand,foreign trade and equilibrium module,also add the carbon emission module and social welfare module.On this basis,the macro-social accounting matrix and the micro-social accounting matrix are compiled.After the relevant parameters of the CGE model are calibrated,this paper solves the model by GAMS software.Among them,the micro-social accounting matrix's activity and commodity accounts are divided into 13 departments,such as agriculture,industry,construction,rail transport,road transport,urban passenger transport,air transport,water transport,services and so on,but this paper focuses on changes of transport sectors.Next,this paper sets up different tax scenarios for simulation analysis.For the initial tax rate,the article selects four file rate,which is 20 yuan/tonne,40 yuan/tonne,60 yuan/ tonne and 80 yuan/tonne.The article compares the different tax rate scenarios with benchmark scenarios to analyse the changes of various indicators.Also the impactof the four carbon tax rates on macroeconomic indicators in 2018-2020 is simulated and analyzed.After the government imposes carbon tax revenue,two tax return options have been set up to reduce the negative impact on the economy.On this basis,it simulates the impact of carbon tax levying on economy and residents' welfare under the two kinds of tax return methods of residents and enterprises returned to residents respectively.The results show that:(1)The optimal tax rate obtained in this paper is 40 yuan/tonne,in this situation the energy consumption is the least,the carbon dioxide emission reduction effect is the best,and the negative effect on the social economy is the smallest.If we adopt tax rebate,the effect will be better.(2)The suitable carbon tax rate for road transport,urban passenger transport,air transport and water transport sector is 20yuan/tonne,while the rail transport sector is suitable for carbon tax rate of 80yuan/tonne.(3)The dynamic CGE model predicts that the GDP,total investment,corporate income and carbon emissions will continue to decline in 2018-2020,and government revenue will continue to rise.Finally,this paper suggests that Chinese carbon tax rate is 40 yuan/tonne.At the same time,it is necessary for the government to carry out sector differentiation tax rate."One size fits all" policy can not make every department to reach its maximize efficiency,even may lead to the opposite side.The appropriate tax rate for different industry sectors will be the consideration of policy implementation.In addition,we need to adjust the energy structure,the current coal and other fossil energy consumption ratio is too high.Increase the use of clean energy is conducive to save resources,reduce carbon emissions and achieve green development.