Evaluation Of Tobacco Consumption,Methamphetamine And Ketamine Abuse Through Multiple Parameters Population Estimation

The abuse of addictive substances is a worldwide public concern and social problem.It is not only harmful to personal health but also threat to the public safety and economic development.Traditional surveys of the abuse of addictive substances usually use general investigations and questionnaires,but these methods are long time programs and consume a lot of human resources.In recent years,newly development of wastewater analysis is considered as an accurate and quick method in survey of the abuse of addictive substances.However,this method causes some uncertainties especially in population estimation.In order to reduce the uncertainty of wastewater analysis,our research set a multiple parameters model in population estimation and calculated the population in the wastewater plants(WWTPs)served area in 8 cities(Changchun,Jilin,Songyuan,Baishan,Tonghua,Siping,Baicheng,Yanji)in Jilin province.Meanwhile we surveyed the consumption of tobacco,abuse of methamphetamine(METH)and ketamine(KET)in these cities with the population about 4,320,000 and conducted uncertainty analysis to evaluate the final results.The result illustrates that multiple parameters model based on Analytic Hierarchy Process can reduce uncertainty in population estimation compared with single parameter equivalent population estimations.The population in 10 WWTPs in Jilin province ranged from 60,200 to 1,3 00,000 calculated by multiple parameters model.Also this result showed good coordinate with the result of experts' estimation and mass load of biomarker(Cotinine),respectively.In the survey of the tobacco consumption,the average concentration of nicotine and cotinine in wastewater were 14.9 ± 14.0 and 1.82± 0.50 ?g/L,respectively.Amphetamine and METH showed the concentration with 28.3 ± 11.1 and 179 ± 95.5 ng/L,respectively.The average concentration of norketamine was 2.91 ± 2.93 ng/L.In back calculation,the average consumption of nicotine in Jilin province was calculated 1.96 mg/day/person,and the average cigarette consumption for smokers was 15.9 cigarettes/day/person.These results were in consistent with the results of traditional surveys.The average abuse of METH was calculated 195 ?g/day/person in Jinlin province and the result in population who were between 15-64 years old was 260 ?g/day/person.Also we found that the abuse of METH in weekends was higher than that in weekdays.The average abuse of KET was about 36.4 ?g/day/person.Uncertainty analysis was programed by Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the contribution of different parameters to the total uncertainty which helped reduce the uncertainty and improve the accurate of the results for the further study.In conclusion,wastewater analysis combined with multiple parameters model was time-saving,convenient and the results were optimistic.This research provide a new method for the survey of the abuse of addictive substances.