Evaluation Of Ecological Suitability Of Minqin Oasis And Analysis Of Oasis Drought Driving Mechanism

Desert oasis is the basic environment for human survival in arid and semi-arid regions.With the continuous growth of the population,the disorderly plundering of resources by humanity has caused the deteriorating eco-environment of the desert oasis,and sustainable development has been the only mode of progress that can effectively alleviate the deteriorating trend of the ecological environment.Harmony and orderly coexistence between mankind and the ecological environment are the aim of current and future development.In this paper,the status qua of Minqin Oasis is accurately positioned,and data processing and analysis are performed using system engineering theory and statistical principles.Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process?AHP?in theory,a recognition index system for ecological suitability in the region is constructed,and the perspective of meteorological drought,hydrological drought and agricultural drought is established.Identify meteorological,hydrological,agricultural,and socioeconomic drought drivers,and explore drought-driven factor identification systems and drought-driven mechanisms in order to provide a theoretical basis for scientifically addressing drought,safeguarding national water security,and supporting economic and social development.The main research results are as follows:?1?The framework for studying the degree of suitability of desert and oasis ecosystems was drawn up and the scope of the grading criteria for participation indicators was formulated.Starting from the system engineering theory,the AHP was used to identify the framework for index research.The weight coefficients of the 5 criteria layers of hydrology and water resources,meteorological factors,ecological construction,social economic and population development and19 related indicators were calculated.Comprehensively related documents and contemporary standards at home and abroad,the scope of the grading standards for each participating index was formulated.Oasis ecosystems were graded and assigned by expert score and related scientific staff rating opinion statistics.?2?Minqin Oasis Ecosystem Suitability Index System was constructed.The comprehensive indicator method was used to construct the identification index system for the degree of suitability of the desert oasis ecosystem in Minqin,and the comprehensive evaluation of ecosystem suitability from 2010 to 2015 was conducted.The results showed that the suitability scores were 32.73,37.84,50.73,58.22,75.23,80.79,respectively.It is more appropriate for the degree of suitability to transition from the 2010 low score inappropriate degree to the 2013 stable level to the 2015 low score.In terms of degree,the peak of comprehensive score growth rate was25.41%in 2012 and 22.61%in 2014.In 2015,the growth rate slowed down and the growth rate dropped to 6.88%.The results of the analysis of each indicator layer show that hydrology and water resources have the greatest impact on ecological suitability,and ecological construction takes the second place.?3?A drought-driven analysis framework for desert oasis was established and a drought-driven quantitative analysis method was proposed.Based on the principal component analysis method,we started from the criterion level and the target level to explore the causes and effectsofmeteorological,hydrological,agriculturalandsocio-economicdroughts.Comprehensively extracting four independent principal components from 21 indicators,the cumulative variance contribution rate is as high as 98.255%,thus analyzing the drought-driven mechanism of the entire region.The results showed that during the study period,X₁ annual precipitation,X₂ year evaporation,X₈ groundwater level,X₁₀0 polling amount,X₁₁1 upstream inflow,X₁₃3 cultivated area,X₁₄4 effective irrigated area,and X₂₁1 million industrial added value water consumption were The main driving force of drought in desert-oasis is the order of X₈>X₂/X₁₁>X₁₃/X₁₄>X₁>X₂₁>X₁₀.?4?It reveals the drivers of meteorological drought,hydrological drought,agricultural drought and socio-economic drought and their internal links.In this study,annual evaporation X₂and average temperature X₄ are the main driving factors affecting meteorological drought,while hydrology drought is more dependent on the amount of outbound water X₉ and the amount of polluted water X₁₀.The agricultural drought was mainly caused by the increase of X₁₃3 arable land area and X₁₄4 effective irrigated area.The amount of water used for social and economic development has grown up to become a major factor in the socio-economic drought.The concepts of criminological drought,hydrological drought,agricultural drought and socio-economic drought were defined,and the linkages between different droughts were explored.It was obvious that the arid environment in the Minqin Oasis was a water-oriented,multi-indicator interaction and interpenetration cycle evolution caused.