A Study On Spatial-temporal Pattern And Its Influence Factors Of CO₂ Emissions Caused By Direct Energy Consumption Of Rural Residents In China

Climate change as one of the most serious global environmental problems that have aroused the widespread concern of the public.As the most important greenhouse gases,CO₂ emissions are the main driver of climate change.Reducing carbon emissions is the inevitable choice to realize the coordinated development of"five in one"in China.Studies have shown that household energy consumption was a new growth point of carbon emissions,which reflected some differences in the dual structure of urban and rural areas in China.In the past,many studies focused on the carbon emissions of energy consumption from urban residents.There was still a lack of this research in rural areas.Therefore,this paper will take the rural residents of China as the research object,and discuss the spatial-temporal distribution of carbon emissions and its influencing factors in direct energy consumption,so as to provide theoretical basis and scientific support for improving Chinese rural emission reduction policies.On the premise of summarizing the research progress at domestic and abroad,this paper collected and dealt with the direct energy consumption of rural residents in China from 1997 to2015.Firstly,with the method of carbon emission coefficient to estimate carbon emissions from direct energy use by different regions and varieties,and analyze their characteristics on time series and spatial distribution;Secondly,spatial autocorrelation model,hot spot analysis and barycenter shift model were used to analyze the spatial variability of per capita carbon emissions of direct energy consumption for Chinese rural residents in 2015.Finally,LMDI model was introduced to the study on the influencing factors of direct energy consumption carbon emissions of Chinese rural residents on the time series?from 1997 to 2015?.In addition,considering the effect of spatial autocorrelation,the exploratory regression model,the ordinary least square model,the spatial lag model and spatial error model were used to analyze the impact of per capita carbon emissions of direct energy consumption on the global spatial scale in 2015.The conclusions were obtained as follows:1.From 1997 to 2015,the direct energy consumption of rural residents in China included five parts:coal,oils,electricity,natural gas and heat.And the total amount of carbon emissions which generated by them was on the rise.Especially in the latter 10 years,the growth rate of carbon emissions are the trend of doubling,mainly from the contribution of electricity,coal products and oil products.The main sources of carbon emissions in different periods of time were different:from 1997-2005,carbon emissions mainly came from the contribution of coal and electricity,and after 2005,they mainly came from the contribution of electricity,oils and coal.In the last 20 years,the carbon emissions of coal products have generally remained stable.However,the carbon emissions of electricity and oil products have been increased year by year.In addition,the regional differences of carbon emissions of energy consumption of Chinese rural residents were large.The provinces with high carbon emissions are mainly concentrated in the eastern part of China,while the carbon emissions in the central and western provinces are relatively lower.2.From 1997 to 2015,the positive global spatial autocorrelation of per capita carbon emissions for direct energy consumption of Chinese rural residents is increased year by year.In2015,the significant positive spatial autocorrelation has been highlighted.The local spatial autocorrelation is also increased year by year,mostly low-low and high-high clustering,in which low-low cluster was mainly distributed in western China.However,the concentration of southwest was stronger than that of northwest.The high-high cluster was mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas of China,such as Bohai Rim region and the Yangtze River Delta region.The barycenter shift of carbon emissions can be roughly divided into two stages.From 1997 to 2010,the barycenter of carbon emissions mainly moved eastward.From 2010 to 2015,the barycenter of carbon emissions moved southward.It might be closely related to the rapid economic development of eastern and southern,the higher income level of the residents,the more perfect infrastructure and so on.3.On the scale of temporal,from 1997 to 2015,the influencing factors of carbon emissions of the direct energy consumption of Chinese rural residents were fall gradually,which are the income of residents,energy structure,population size,energy intensity and carbon emission coefficient.The income of residents,energy structure and carbon emission coefficient had the greatest positive pulling to the carbon emissions of direct energy consumption of Chinese rural residents,and the population size and energy intensity were negative.On the scale of spatial,the per capita carbon emissions of direct energy consumption for Chinese rural residents in 2005mainly included the per capita disposable income of rural residents,energy intensity,the energy structure?oil products?and energy structure?electricity?.All of them had significant positive effects on per capita carbon emissions.Among them,the energy structure?electricity?had the greatest positive contribution to the direct energy consumption carbon emissions of Chinese rural residents,but the per capita disposable income of rural residents was the least.