Life Cycle Cost Study Of The Substation Project Based On Monte Carlo

With the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization in China in recent years, the national economy is steady and rapid growth and the demand for electricity is increasing. To meet the growing demand for electri city, grid companies have all invested a lot of manpower and resources for electric power construction, substation projects occupy a large proportion in substation projects, so the important issues of grid companies need to be studied is how to effectively construct and manage the substation projects.Substation project life cycle cost management focuses on the entire life cycle of the substation project, fully consider the design of the equipment or systems, procurement, installation, operation and mainten ance phase of the whole process until retirement, it avoids the cost of short-term behavior, to meet basic system requirements on reliability, so as to safeguard their overall benefits for the purpose of seeking the best solution.Based on the reviewed literature on relevant issues substation project life cycle cost optimization of management studies, carried out the following studies:(1)According to the principle of decomposition of life cycle cost, the structure of substation project was decomposed layer by layer to get easy to estimate and evaluate the cost unit, analyzes several features of substation project life cycle cost, the factors affecting the life cycle cost of substation project were studied.(2)Studied and compared three estimation methods of life cycle cost of the substation project: parametric method, analogy method and neural network method, the discount rate was proposed by the market interest rate and inflation corrected in order to estimate the future cost, established the estimates mode l of life cycle cost of the main transformer.(3)Proposed the type-selecting scheme of the main transformer based on Monte Carlo, analysed the life cycle cost sensitivity of the main transformer by the sensitive analysis of life cycle cost based on Monte Carlo, and proved the usefulness and effectiveness of the method by the engineering example. The former analyzed the economic load rate of the main transformer, faced with the traditional scheme which is not fully considered the uncertainty of future cost, using the Monte Carlo method to analyzing the unknown risk, came up with the main transformer capacity and the number of units selection process. The latter combined correlation coefficient method and the Monte Carlo simulation to analysis the sensitivity of life cycle cost of the main transformer, the shortcoming that only consider the sensitive extent of life cycle cost of the main transformer to the change of a parameter in the traditional sensitive analysis method was improved, taking into account the e ffection to life cycle cost of the main transformer of parameters' values. Finally drew the conclusion, proposed practical and effective ideas for substation project design and cost optimization.