Dynamic Analysis And Control Strategy Optimization Of Construction Conspiracy Supervision In Government Public Project

Conspiracy supervision, which supervises the conspiracy behavior of the supervisors and the contractors during the construction courses, acts as an important part of the guarantee the quality of the major government investment projects under the Government Construction Agent system. Current studies, which apply traditional Game Theory to solve the project conspiracy during the progress of the construction, are mainly focus on finding the Nash equilibrium, regardless of the uncertainties during the game induced by bounded rationality of the game player, which will make the game decision become dynamic and complex. And the dynamics and complexity of conspiracy strategy will invalidate the effect of prediction and supervision mechanism by the government. Therefore, the paper attempts to combine evolutionary game with System Dynamics model to study the dynamics of construction conspiracy supervision Game and optimize the penalty mechanism to control the conspiracy.In particular, first, the paper choses the conspiracy developing by supervisor and contractor during construction courses as studying object by analyzing the procedure of government construction agent system.Then, the Nash equilibrium of the conspiracy supervision game depending on different supervision's risk attitudes has been figured out based on combining the Prospect Theory and the Game theory. Further, a System Dynamic model will be built to reveal the dynamic procedure of the Nash equilibrium and prove that common penalty mechanism cannot control the dynamics.Next, considering the bounded rationality in the conspiracy supervision Game, an evolutionary game model is built to make out the evolutionary equilibrium, which might be the ESS(evolutionary stability strategy) proved by Jacobi matrix stability analysis. At last, an SD model of the evolutionary game conspiracy supervision is built to prove the ESS. With the help of the simulation, optimized mechanism of double penalty and dynamic penalty are proposed and proved to be able to control the dynamics of the game.In this paper, the breakthrough of combining prospect theory and evolutionary game dynamics studies and System dynamic simulation system in studying construction conspiracy problems can be a new reference both in theory and in reality for future research.