The Research On The Prediction Of The Highway Traffic Volume In The Integrated Transportation Channel Of The Yangtze River

The Yangtze River is the largest river in China and the largest domestic inland water transportation channel,which has played an important role in the Inland water transportation.The main line of the Yangtze River connects three important economic zones in eastern China,central China and southwestern China,which has always been the main axis for the economic development in east and west of our country.With the development of the central region and the deep-going of the development of the western region,regarding its as the backing,the various provinces and cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River have sped up the development,especially the central cities along the back,such as Chongqing,Nanjing,Wuhan and Shanghai,have been becoming more and more dependent on it.What’s more,a series of economic belts have begun to form and gradually become larger.In September,2014,the State Council issued “the Guidance on Relying on the Golden Waterway to Promote the Development of the Economy of Yangtze River”,deploying to transform the Yangtze River economic belt into a coordinated inland river economic belt with the global influence.As we all known,traffic is the antecedent condition of economic development,the integrated transportation channel of the Yangtze River provides the basic transportation service for the development of the economic belt along the Yangtze River.The integrated transportation channel of the Yangtze River is a large transportation channel that incorporates railway,highway,waterway,airline and pipeline,it plays an important part in the process of promoting the economic development along the river.The formation of the integrated transportation channel of the Yangtze River is a constant process of improvement,from the development of the waterway transportation of the Yangtze River to the integration of waterway with railway and highway,then to the integration of five modes of transportation.The development along the Yangtze River moves towards integration,diversification and internationalization step by step.At present,the capacity analysis of the Yangtze River route has mainly focused on the analysis of the waterway capacity,however,the literature on change of demand of highway traffic volume influenced by waterway and railway is less.Highway is an important way of contacting various transportation modes,like waterway,airline and railway,and the normal operation of these transportation modes are realized by railway transportation to a large extent.Therefore,researching the influence that the development of large transportation channel exerts on the railway transportation,for one thing,can make suggestions to the development of transportation channel,for another,can provide reference for the development of cities along the Yangtze River.The thesis first starts from the development of economy and society along the Yangtze River and the present situation of comprehensive traffic development,combining the construction condition of the golden waterway of the Yangtze River,makes a comprehensive analysis about the present situation of social development in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.Based on the above,the paper further analyzes the influence that the development of the integrated transportation channel of the Yangtze River exerts on the highway traffic volume of Chongqing,Wuhan and Shanghai.Secondly,on the basis of social and economic development data and traffic data of Chongqing,Wuhan and Shanghai,the thesis establishes a corresponding prediction model,predicting the highway traffic volume of the integrated transportation channel of the Yangtze River in three years,which provides reference for the development of future railway,offers theoretical basis for the further optimization of the integrated transportation channel of the Yangtze River and provides data support for the development of future economy.With the method of the particle swarm optimization support vector algorithm,the thesis first has predicted the highway traffic volume of Chongqing,Wuhan and Shanghai in the integrated transportation channel of the Yangtze River,then verified the validity of the model and predicted the highway transportation demand of six provinces and two cities in the integrated transportation channel of the Yangtze River.The result of prediction shows that the integrated transportation channel of the Yangtze River greatly increases the demand of highway traffic volume,which illustrates that it needs to improve in highway of the large transportation channel.At last,according to the result of prediction,the thesis puts forward several suggestions for the development of the integrated transportation channel of the Yangtze River.