The Social Water Cycle And Trade Water Cycle Accounting And Change Analysis In The Inland River Basin Of Northwest China

Water resource is an important resource for the survival of human society and natural environment.With the rapid development of social economy,water resources are increasingly in short supply in China,especially in the arid northwest inland areas.Since 1990 s,the concept of virtual water has provided new methods and means for water resource management,thus providing a new perspective for the sustainable use of water resources.With the increasing of human activities,the water cycle mode changes from the natural water cycle driven by natural forces to the social water cycle driven by artificial forces.Water resources are produced,exchanged,distributed and consumed in the regional socio-economic system,forming the "dual" water cycle between nature and society.With the increasing prosperity of inter-regional commodity trade,the "virtual water" contained in commodities plays an increasingly important role in the regional water cycle,forming a trade water cycle among the socio-economic systems of different regions.Scholars at home and abroad have carried out a lot of research on virtual water based on national or provincial level and achieved results,but few studies on specific geographical areas.Therefore this article selects the inland river basin of northwest China as study area,through the calculation analysis of the region in 2002,2007,2012 social water circulation and trade cycle water flux and its influencing factors,so as to further optimize the inland river basin of northwest China water resources allocation in the process of social and economic development structure and improve water use efficiency to provide decision basis,in order to ensure the security of the silk road economic belt of water resources to provide scientific reference basis.Based on 2002,2007 and 2012 input-output table and water resource data,compiled in the inland river basin of northwest China and the river basin water resources input-output table,and then calculated the social and economic system inside the virtual water flow momentum,through the analysis of the index calculation internal virtual water cycle process and trend of social economic system,in order to further explore the factors affecting the change of social water cycle,use the IO-SDA will affect the factor decomposition model for the technical effect and economic efficiency effect,scale effect and structure effect of four factors,calculate the contribution rate of each affecting factor.Finally,based on the inter-regional input-output table,the circulation fluxes of trade water between the inland river basin of northwest China and other regions in 2002,2007 and 2012 are calculated,and the pattern and changing trend of virtual water trade are analyzed.The results show that:(1)2002-2012 in the inland river basin of northwest China the direct water consumption increased,and the first industry of water ratio of over 90%,the lowest water coefficient,the third industry,secondary industry the highest water use coefficient,but overall showed a trend of decrease,it shows that the utilization efficiency of water resources is constantly improving;From 2002 to 2012,the total amount of virtual water increased from 39.060 billion m3 to 57.126 billion m3,with an increase of 18.067 billion m3.Compared with the change of virtual water from 2002 to 2007,the increase of virtual water decreased significantly from 2007 to 2012;(2)From 2002 to 2012 in the inland river basin of northwest China various sectors in the process of virtual water transfer,the agriculture to the second and third industry of virtual water transfer are on the increase,the agricultural sector virtual water is mainly transferred to the correlation with higher food production and tobacco processing industry,textile industry and other departments,from 2002 to 2012,the trend of virtual water transfer between industries gradually tends to be homogenized,and it is no longer concentrated in a few industrial sectors;(3)The technical effect,economic system effect and structural effect are the main factors to offset the increase of virtual water,while the scale effect is the main factor to offset the increase of virtual water,which contributes 58.67% to the total increase of virtual water.(4)Water cycle,from trade in the inland river basin of northwest China of virtual water mainly flow to the central,the eastern region and the eastern coastal areas in China,the virtual water defined mainly concentrated in the northeast region,middle region and the southeast coastal areas,from 2002 to 2012 in the inland river basin of northwest China of virtual water trade patterns expands unceasingly,and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and central region,the eastern region and the eastern coastal areas more cohesive,driving the development of economy at the same time makes the virtual water flow in great quantities,exacerbating the scarcity of water resource in the inland river basin of northwest China.Finally,according to the research results,in order to improve the utilization efficiency of water resources in the inland river basin of northwest China and alleviate the shortage of water resources,reasonable approaches and strategies for water resources regulation are put forward.(1)Strengthen water-saving measures to improve water efficiency;(2)Adjust the industrial structure within the region to reduce the indirect consumption of water resources;(3)Raise public awareness of water conservation and promote the construction of a water-saving society;(4)Adjust the inter-regional trade structure and reasonably control the scale of virtual water trade.