Study On Socio-economic Water Cycle From The Perspective Of Water Footprint And Input-output Table Model

Water resources are the most basic material resources for social life and economic production.Under the comprehensive influence of climate change and human activities,the contradiction of water resources in North Xinjiang has become increasingly prominent.To carry out the research on water cycle of social and economic system in North Xinjiang,reveal the characteristics of water resources flow and transfor-mation among different sectors of water and economic system,can optimize the rational allocation of water resources and rationally deploy industrial structure.Adjustment policy provides theoretical and deci-sion-making reference.The research of water cycle in social and economic system should be carried out on different scales.So this paper calculates the water footprint of 13 main crops in North Xinjiang in 2016from the angle of production and consumption by using water footprint principle at the crop product end,and analyses the production and consumption water footprint of various crops and the virtual water trade volume of crop products.At the department end of social and economic system,nine departments are con-structed.Based on the water resources-input-output table,this model is used to calculate the virtual water flow and transfer among industries in the social and economic system of North Xinjiang,and to analyze the characteristics and correlation of water use among industries.On this basis,the change of virtual water trade flow in the social and economic system of North Xinjiang in 2030 is predicted,with a view to providing countermeasures and suggestions for water resources management and regulation in North Xin-jiang.Main conclusions and suggestions:(1)In 2016,the water footprint of crop production was 182.03×10~8 m~3,the water footprint of con-sumption was 110.11×10~8 m~3,and the virtual water trade of crops was 71.92×10~8 m~3.The value of grain crops(wheat,miscellaneous grains,rice)and cotton crops in North Xinjiang accounted for more than 80%of their corresponding total production,consumption and trade,showing a high water-consuming planting structure and high-consuming crops."two High"phenomenon.Therefore,crop structure can be optimized by crop water footprint per unit yield and the value of crop products,and low water consumption and high yield crop varieties can be selected.(2)In North Xinjiang,both intermediate use and final consumption are dominated by local products,depending on the output benefits of the use of local resources.In terms of total economic output,services and manufacturing sectors are the main sectors of economic output.From the point of view of economic flow,planting,animal husbandry,fishery,mining and selection,and service industries in the social and economic system of northern Xinjiang are the net output departments of flow,while forestry,manufacturing and power industries are the net input departments of flow.From the point of view of water use structure,the planting industry shows a"top priority"situation,and the water use for planting accounts for 91%of the social and economic water use.(3)The composition of virtual water output of various economic sectors in northern Xinjiang is that the virtual water conversion of animal husbandry,manufacturing,construction and service industries main-ly comes from other sectors of the economic system,and the conversion of planting,forestry,fishery,elec-tric power and picking owners mainly depends on their own sectors.The indirect water multiplier of the second and tertiary sectors is higher than that of the agricultural sectors.The indirect water multiplier of construction,manufacturing and service industries is 26.5,60.7 and 43.7 respectively.The indirect water multiplier of planting,forestry and animal husbandry is 0.27,0.45 and 1.02 respectively,which indicates that the departments of the second and tertiary industries are highly dependent on the agricultural sectors.Therefore,importing water-intensive products into intermediate use is a way to maintain economic growth and reduce water pressure.(4)In 2016,the virtual water output in North Xinjiang was 235×10~8 m~3,of which 227×10~8 m~3 was supplied locally,accounting for 96%of the virtual water output;the virtual water allocation for residential consumption was 82.1×10~8 m~3,the virtual water storage was 84.3×10~8 m~3,and the virtual water outflow was 68.6×10~8 m~3.In 2030,the predicted output of virtual water in North Xinjiang is 260×10~8 m~3,and the local supply is 240×10~8 m~3,accounting for 92%of the virtual water output.The external virtual water in-flow into the intermediate production link is 20.3×10~8m~3.The direct consumption of virtual water by resi-dents is 31.6×10~8m~3,and the net outflow of virtual water is 39.3×10~8m~3.Compared with 2016,the export volume and import volume of virtual water trade increase by 10.5×10~8m~3and 29.1×10~8m~3,respectively.In view of the forecast results,the main suggestions are as follows:to reduce the initial water input through the adjustment of planting structure;to reduce the dependence of the economic system on the aquatic in-dustry through the adjustment of industrial structure;to reduce the use of real water in the region through virtual water trade.