Research And Application Of Risk Assessment And Analysis In Electricity Communication Transmission Network

With the diversified development of electrical power system, business operations between the various departments are increasingly dependent on electricity transmission network, which requires transmission network with high reliability and stability, but the influence to the electrical power system caused by risks and failures of the electric power communication transmission network is growing serious, and the risk assessments on electric power communication transmission network should be held timely, which may help discovering and disposing the higher risk points that have a great significance to the safety of the entire communications network.With the in-depth research of risk assessment to the electric power communication transmission network, the article completes the following four aspects: First, t he definition of risk in the electric power communication transmission network is given, and the advantages and disadvantages of the current methods of risk assessment are analyzed and contrasted, then the Analytic Hierarchy Process combined with the modified D_S evidence theory is put forward for the risk assessment in this article. Second, the risk evaluation index system is established according to the selection principle of risk assessment indicators. Case of the third, while utilizing AHP to structure index system of risk assessment in power transmission network, single decision- maker cannot describe the degree of importance between indexes. In view of this, D_S evidence theory is proposed to solve the issue of multiple attribute group. In allusion to t he case that the fusion rules of D_S cannot deal with conflict evidence, a new fusion rule is put forward. Firstly, utilize absolute credibility by calculating Euclidean distance correct the original evidence, then utilize the improved local conflicts probability distribution weights reassign the probability of conflict between the evidences. Experimental results show that the method studied in this paper have higher reliability and better convergence effect. Then we adopt the modified D_S fusion rules to revise the judgment matrix, integrating a number of experts so that the weight calculation results are more objective. Fourth, we design the electricity transmission network risk assessment model in order to complete the risk values calculation of the equipment, optical cable and business.Last, the studied index weight calculation method, established risk assessment index system and risk assessment model are applied to electric power communication network risk point analysis system, completing the design of the system architecture and database and the functions user login and user management, risk assessment model configuration, risk results shown and risk control are all implemented. After the test run, the designed system can play a supporting role in decision- making of electric power communication transmission network risk assessment.