Research On Adjustment And Optimization Of Train Delay Based On Scenario Computing

Train operation adjustment is the important segment that guarantees the train's operation efficient, orderly and safe. According to train working diagram, the train operates orderly in normal situation. While actually the working order is subject to be disturbed by the outside world or trains' own reason, which would lead to conflict between trains and cause property loss even casualties in severe case. So when a train's operation suffers interference, the adjustment should be done in time to make sure that the train's order recovers to normal situation as soon as possible so as to reduce delay time and delay train's number. With the development of technology, the speed of train is higher and the operation density is greater, In order to guarantee the safe operation, train's adjustment is required to be more efficient, accurate and be satisfied with the terms such as the rule of train following interval and rule of train departure time interval. Meanwhile, the difficulty of train adjustment is increased.According to available reference data and the most updated scientific research about train operation adjustment from domestic and abroad, the following problems were studied and discussed in this dissertation.Firstly, the background and significance of train operation adjustment are discussed and research status at home and abroad is summarized. And the cause, characteristics, principles and measures of train operation adjustment are analyzed.Secondly, the scenario model of delay is established based on scenario analysis. It is divided into three categories of scenario according to the severity degree of delay, the influencing factors are analyzed and the corresponding weights of the factor are calculated by the method of expert evaluation and analytic hierarchy process. The important factors that have influences on the train's delay degree are extracted to bring out the delay degree's standard of quantitative classification and process of concrete calculation.Thirdly, the objective function of operation adjustment under different scenarios is put forward according to the classification of the delayed train's scenario and the corresponding adjustment model is established. The models of different scenarios are solved by the method of information entropy combined with the basic genetic operators of genetic algorithm.Finally, the train operation adjustment models under different scenarios are solved by instance simulation and the adjust results of different objective function under the same scenario are analyzed contrastively. The results can verify the feasibility and availability of the multi-scenario model of delayed train, which have been put forward in this dissertation.