A Research And Development Of Electric Power User Of Electricity Recovery Risk Warning Management System

With the further development of the electricity market,the continuous progress of science and technology,the power of information management of new technology has gradually become an important means to enhance the effective management of power supply enterprise,risk early-warning management is an important part of electricity electricity safety management,and the electricity recovery risk early warning management of large power customers is an important part of the risk early warning management of electricity.For more efficient electricity recovery risk management,improve the ability of electricity recovery risk prevention and control of the power supply enterprise,this paper set up the system of electricity recovery risk early warning management of large power users,combined with the theory of management science,will use the risk early-warning management in practice,the key to solve technical problems and operation difficulties of electricity recovery risk early warning management the theoretical research will not only applied to electricity and security risk management,the research has strong practicability And prospective.First of all,through the historical analysis of payment behavior of consumers,the current status and future payment of electricity tariff recovery trend data,establish a set of large power customers arrears risk scientific and objective forecast index of electric power customer arrears risk prediction model,Logisitc and SVM in predicting the risk of arrears models are established,and the with the simulation of two models for comparative analysis calculation.Secondly,the mathematical model of credit rating evaluation of large power customers,the establishment of the development of the industry,the three aspects of the history of credit and corporate financial indicators,the establishment of AHP grade credit rating credit rating model,AHP model BP neural network training,simulation,implementation of qualitative to quantitative credit conversion rating.Finally,to build a large power user electricity recovery risk early warning management system,power supply enterprises through this system to the power users Industry risk prediction and evaluation of credit rating,arrearage risk prediction.Finally,the system will be industry risk measure,credit rating and arrearage risk prediction was incorporated into the electrical charge risk early warning decision model,of large power customers issued a red,orange,blue,green,four kinds of electric charge recycling risk warning signals.Through the research on the power user tariff recovery risk early warning management system,for large users of electricity tariff recovery risk quantitative analysis and scientific evaluation,realize the power supply enterprise of large users of electricity tariff recovery risk real-time early warning and control.