Research On Early Warning Of Investment Risk Of Overseas Railway Projects From The Perspective Of Enterprises

"The Belt and Road" initiative has provided a great opportunity for Chinese enterprises to develop overseas market.As an important part of "the Belt and Road" initiative,the railway project is responsible for the domestic output and international expansion.In recent years,with the improvement of technology and management level,overseas railway projects of enterprises are no longer limited to project contracting and construction,but advanced to form a project investment mode integrating investment,construction and operation to improve the profitability of enterprises.With the expansion of corporate responsibility plate and the extension of project life cycle in the investment model,a more complex risk situation will be formed;at the same time,the particularity of overseas environment will be coupled with other risk factors,which will aggravate the risk level of investment matters.In recent years,the loss events of overseas railway projects occur frequently,so the risk early warning and prevention is particularly important.But in fact,the corresponding enterprise reality is that the risk early warning thinking is backward,the risk early warning work floats on the surface,the automatic risk early warning system is missing,and so on.The enterprise overseas project risk early-warning system needs to be established urgently.Based on the research principle of combining theory with practice,this paper first introduces and expounds the related concepts and theories of the early warning research on the investment risk of overseas railway projects of enterprises;secondly,through the construction of HHM framework model,combined with the literature analysis method,it subdivides the content of the investment risk of overseas railway projects and identifies the key risks,using the objective risk evaluation standard and subjective method.The expert opinion selects the risk factors,sets the risk early warning standard value,and constructs the enterprise overseas railway project investment risk early warning index with regional orientation;thirdly,designing the multifunctional risk early warning system by using the Bayes principle;finally,using the risk early warning index body,combined with the knowledge of systems science and software development,proceed from the system structure,module content and logical level construct the investment risk early warning system for overseas railway projects.The simulation of the risk early warning system is carried out based on the China-Laos railway investment case,which ensures the actual operation of the research results which are proved to be practical and reliable.This paper studies the early warning of overseas railway project investment risk of Chinese enterprises.In theory,taking overseas railway project as the research subject,it complements the risk content in the investment risk section and improves the theory of overseas investment risk management;in practice,the prevention and control of overseas railway project investment risk provides theoretical guidance for enterprises to build their own automatic overseas railway risk early warning system,which is helpful for enterprises to strengthen the concept of investment risk,make scientific project investment decisions and reduce project investment losses before carrying out overseas railway project investment,so as to obtain higher project investment profits which owns theoretical and practical significance at the same time.