Xi’an Zone Flight Flow And The Combined Forecasting Of Sectors

With the social economic advancing, which make the civil aviation industry developing rapidly. growing civil air flight traffic flow, as well as intensive flight traffic, which lead to the more worsen air traffic congestion and result in the difficulty and regulatory burden on air traffic controllers, decrease the passenger’s satisfaction on air passenger service, threat the economic interests of airlines, therefore it has become an important problem to be solved for ATFM. as well as accurately predicting for a specific area of ? ?flight traffic, which take it easy to make air traffic planning and airspace resources allocation more flexible and rational.For this task, based on the characteristics of predicted object, this paper which obtain Xi’an approach and en-route flight traffic flow historical statistics from 2000 to 2012,establish qualitative and quantitative forecasting model, consider national economy and the trend of western regions macroeconomic development, and properly plan Xi’an approach control area and en-route control airspace, which achieve the rational allocation of human and material resources. To overcome the uncertainties of a single predictive model, the paper uses combination forecasting to narrow the gap between prediction and reality, so it can improve the accuracy of prediction models. the forecasting for Xi’an approach control area to determine the required number of airspace sectors is a basic work at the planning decision,which has important practical significance.