Research On Monitoring Of China’s Civil Aviation Carbon Emissions

Focus on the future development of the aviation, it’s traditional three-dimensional model, with "safety, efficiency, service" as the core, is bound to "safety, efficiency, service and environment" four-dimensional model shift. Thus civil aviation energy conservation has become one of the forefront issues on the international climate change. Combining the grim situation of the international climate change, the voluntary reduction target of our country and the strategic objectives of energy conservation in the civil aviation to get accurate carbon emissions data is the foundation of carrying out the energy saving related work on aviation. Based on this, paper mainly studies the aviation carbon emissions monitoring method, using both the partial least squares and STIRPAT model to build the calculation model of civil aviation carbon emissions, for providing certain theoretical support for the civil aviation carbon emissions monitoring studies.Firstly, paper introduces the concept and characteristics of aviation carbon emissions, which covers the carbon emissions in the process of aircraft being manufactured and used. Meanwhile, by selecting Kaya formula to study the factors affecting China’s civil aviation carbon emissions, it determines the main factors: China’s total population, per capita GDP, total transport turnover per unit of GDP, energy consumption per unit of transport turnover and energy integrated emission coefficient.Secondly, the paper compares the current main research methods about the carbon emissions accounting:IPCC inventory method is simple and suitable for statistical data, but not exhaustive and low in reliability. Measurement method has high precision, but high cost and limited scope of monitoring. Material balance algorithms require complete data record as a support, which is difficult to achieve in China now. Model factor decomposition method can achieve dynamic analysis of various factors effecting emissions, but these factors and their parameters must be known in advance.Based on these researches,the paper builds Chinese civil aviation carbon emissions calculation model. Based on processing and correlation analysis of the existing data in the statistical yearbook, multiple correlations among these selected factors above are found. As a result, it is decided to solve the specific expression of the model by using the partial least squares method.Finally, through precision analysis, linear correlation analysis and specific points identifying of the experiment results, its fitting curve shows high similarity with the original curve. Further, after standardization of coefficients in the solved carbon emission expressions, the contribution rate of the model’s parameters can be compared, and this will be used to provide theoretical bases and advice for the development of carbon reduction policy recommendations.