Research Of Urban Metro Construction Prophase Decision-making Based On Risk Analysis

With the development of urbanization in our country,large and medium-sized cities are facing the development issues,such as traffic congestion,environmental pollution and so on.Therefore,the development and utilization of underground space based on the core of metro construction has become an important layout of urban sustainable development.In recent years,major cities across the country have set off the climax of the metro construction.However,the metro construction in our country starts late,and the metro engineering has a high risk,the construction safety situation is very serious and worrying.This paper starts with this point and integrates metro construction risk analysis into scheme decision-making,and studies the selection decision-making of urban metro construction method in the early stage by using the method of combination of theoretical knowledge and case analysis on the basis of the existing research.There are a lot of risk factors in the construction process of metro engineering,which seriously affect the realization of project objectives.In order to provide realistic basis for the reasonable choice of construction method,it is necessary to analyze the engineering project risk in advance in the metro construction preparatory stage.In this paper,a series of research was carried out on the risk analysis and decision-making of the metro engineering construction.First,the construction technology of urban metro construction is introduced briefly,and the technical features and the main risk factors of the excavation method and the shield method are expounded,which lays the foundation for the following risk analysis.Secondly,the theory and application of risk analysis are deeply studied,and the connotation of engineering risk and risk analysis are defined,and the risk analysis method and its application are introduced.At the same time,the fuzzy hierarchy comprehensive evaluation model of the metro construction risk is constructed to evaluate the risk level,which determines the weights of the evaluation indexes by the method of analytic hierarchy process,and evaluates the risk level of metro construction by the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.Thirdly,this paper selects the project cost,schedule,risk,the difficulty of construction,the environmental effect as indicators for decision-making of metro tunnel construction method,and constructs the multi-objective decision-making model by using the improved analytic hierarchical network(ANP)on the basis of the comparison of several decision methods.Finally,combining with the result of risk assessment,the decision-making model is applied to the decision-making of construction method of the engineering example,and the decision result is obtained by Matlab software.According to the actual situation of engineering,this paper gets the comparison of risk level of different construction method by using the method combining the analytic hierarchy process with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,and achieves the decision-making of metro tunnel construction method through constructing ANP multi-objective decision-making model.The decision result is in agreement with the construction method recommended by the preliminary design scheme of engineering,which shows that the research results of this paper have certain theoretical guidance and practical value for the metro construction risk analysis and decision-making.