The Fuzzy Assessment Of The Minimum Safe Distance For Ships Passing In Open Waters

According to statistics,the annual global shipping accidents occurred more than 3000,the ship collision accident up to nearly 40%[1][2],shipping safety is the research direction by many scholars.How to judge whether the ship is a dangerous ship,its methods and standards are the focus of the current study.Minimum safety distance(MSPD:Minimum Safe Passing Distance)is one of the important parameters to determine the safety of the target ship in the case of the ship.This parameter directly determines the decision of the ship to determine the standard MIN DCPA.At present,Japan's Fujii,now Jinhua Ma,British scholar James,Goodwin,Holland scholar Ramedje,Chinese scholars Wu Zhaolin and Zhao Jinsong respectively,and scenes from different aspects of MSPD modeling,the results are very helpful for the safe navigation of ships.But with the development of science and technology,the limitations of these models are gradually highlighted.This paper based on the previous results,through the statistics and analysis of a large number of ship collision accidents[3],taking into account the environment of ship-comprehensive effect management system,the effect of MSPD on the factors of the new classification and quantitative analysis,using AHP and Delphi,is divided into 3 categories and 11 kinds of influence factors,and established a new MSPD model.The establishment of the new model for the first time joined the ship management factors and day/night factors,increase the impact of human factors,the effect of each factor weights and subordinate to the new.Through the research of this paper,a new method of calculating the minimum safety distance is provided for the ship's driving platform,which provides a scientific basis for the determination of MIN DCPA.