Applicability Of Hydrological Model In Design Flood Calculation In Shandong Province

Flood forecasting is a series of process simulation and prediction of basin which is based on the principle of the runoff mechanism construction of hydrological model and the characteristic elements within flood.Basin flood forecasting mainly depends on the following two points: whether simulation structure can reflect the physical process of runoff formation and parameters set,test and application can meet the precision standard.At present,flood forecast in time can only play a role in the short-term flood control,especially for medium and small basin,due to the confluence time is too fast,effective forecast time will be reduced correspondingly.Therefore it is necessary that we consider in the design of the hydraulic structures of key flood control standard,forecast disaster scale,reduce the loss,and carries on the further design flood computation.The application of the results of hydrological models forecast to basin design flood calculation,for the calculation of design flood provides a new method,should also be a big trend of hydrological forecast in the future.According to the underlying surface conditions in shandong province,the main landform can be covered for general mountainous areas,karst mountainous areas and general plains on three.With the matching respectively the typical river basin,in this paper,we pick up three basin Taihe,Tianzhuang,Liuzhuang Floodgate.This article is for the above three different morphology watershed runoff calculation for different models,respectively,and our research objectives are to calculus of historical flood forecast and the further research of the design flood,to achieve promotion and the new idea of design flood calculation model.Through analysis of the geographical conditions and climate hydrological data,we selected Xin'An river model and Tank model SCS model structures respectively in the three river basin of collecting relevant data beforehand,and adjusted the model parameters after comParing runoff simulation and application.On this basis,we analyzed the feasibility of the three models in the design flood forecasting.Research results show that:1.On the flood events forecast accuracy,subjected to the basin flood data of short and uneven rainfall intensity,the three models application in Taihe and Tianzhuang basin's simulation to flood forecast can barely meet relevant forecast standards,but in general plain Liuzhuang Floodgate basin does not meet the requirements of flood forecast.2.In design flood calculation,interval design precipitation was applied to three kinds of model under offered model parameters,and the results were comPared with the design flood standard in the hydrologic atlas of shandong province and watershed original design flood standard.The design flood results of the Xin'An river model and SCS model is relatively reliable,The results of simulation in flood peak mutation process of Tank model is poorer.