Rearch On Risk Pre-control Of Urban Rail Transit Operation Safety

Urban rail transit has been developing rapidly in a lot of big cities in China.It brings great convenience to travelling for citizens,while many operation accidents occurred and safety issue of urban rail transit operation has gained great attention.However,to analyze the cause after it happens,this passive pattern "post hoc analysis''can no more be able to meet people's needs.On the contrary,if the potential risk of operation can be identified and assessed before the accident happens,preventive measures can be taken in advance,and this active "beforehand prevention" security management approach can really reduce the accidental frequency to nip it in the bud.This paper focuses on the risk pre-control,consisting of the following work:(1)Based on the aspects of accident levels,accident courses and spatial distribution,the operation accidents of domestic urban rail transit are analyzed,which gains insights into the accidence occurrence,and thus provide with a reference of decision making for risk managers.(2)Based on the four aspects of personnel,machine,environment and management,the risk factors affecting the operation safety are detailed analyzed.An ISM model of operation accident influencing factor is established,and a laddered coherence analysis of vehicle,power supply,communication,signal,infrastructure,electromechanical,personnel,environment and management is made.Then this paper figures out the following conclusions:the immediate courses of operation accidents are vehicle and environment;power supply,communication,signal,infrastructure,electromechanical have a direct influence on the safety of vehicles and environment;personnel contributes to accidents,and management is the cause of deepest level.(3)A single-factor and multi-index risk evaluation model for urban rail transit operation is established to achieve risk assessment and monitoring.Considering the problem of unstable sorting of the traditional entropy evaluation method,this paper puts forward a weigh granting method combining entropy method with improved triangular fuzzy number.Given that the bottom lines are different from risk factors,the indexes are divided into dynamic indexes and static indexes,and the dilution effect of RPN is improved by using combinatorial coordinate method and the modified Euclidean distance formula,a single-factor and multi-index risk evaluation model for urban rail transit operation is established.Using the method of drawing the risk monitoring diagram,the actual risk factor monitoring chart is drawn to realize the analysis and monitoring for the risk factor evaluation results.Taking the vehicle system as an example,the results show that the model can reflect the evaluation result of risk factors of urban rail transit operation more objectively and comprehensively,and realize the dynamic monitoring of risk factors more accurately.(4)A risk pre-control management hierarchy for urban rail transit operation is built,in which the corresponding responsibilities are formulated for each layer.The general risk pre-control management process is optimized.This paper puts forward the risk management processes of Transverse to the Edge and Vertical to the End for different risk factors,which improve the implementation of risk management.