Study On The Carrying Capacity Of Water Resources In Dunhuang

Water is the one of the basic resources which relates to the national economy and the people's livelihood and the ecologic balance. At present, the lack of the water resource becomes the rife problem to the human society, how to resolve the mutual relationship among the shortage of water, society economic development and the ecologic balance are the hotspot of people focus on and scientific research.The paper uses this subject as the context, takes the principle of the sustaining use of water, from the relationship among the water resource,social economy and ecologic environment, to analyze the water supply and demand in different years in Dunhuang city and based on these to establish the integrative evaluate model of carrying capacity of water resources; through the analysis to the result of supply and demand and the conclusion of the integrative evaluate, to bring forward the countermeasure for improving the water resources carrying capacity. Can it not only offers the theoretic basis to the governor' decision-making, to realize the reasonable explore and use of water , but also has the significant meanings of boosting the people's consciousness of saving water and of setting up the water saving and environment protecting city.Dunhuang which surrounded by the desert, locates at the hinterland of the Eurasia, is the typic city of desert oasis;it also has the exiguous rainfall, intense evaporation and the limited water resource that can be used.Recent years, because of the people's intensive exploitation and use to the water resource which surpass the ultimate carrying capacity of the water, leads to a series of problems of water environment.It impacts the sustaining development of the social economy, and also intimidates the security of the cultural heritage and the natural sight, such as the Moon Lake and the Mogao Grottoes.Based on the analysis of the condition and character of water resource in Dunhuang, the paper use the way of general trend forecast to speculate the supply and demand of water resource and to do the balanceable analysis of the 2005, 2010 and 2020. The result reveals: if don't consider of the water indraught, the supply and demand of water resource is diverse of the shortage of water in all of years, and the shortage is main in the need of ecologic environment, so the quality of ecologic environment will be deteriorate slowly; contrarily, if consider of the water indraught, the supply and demand of water resource can be balance, and the ecologic environment can be improve and resume.On the basis of the general forecast, this paper combines the research instances about foreign and national water resource carrying capacity, to select 8 estimate factors which can indicate the water resource carrying capacity in Dunhuang.through the means that combine the expert conclusion with the calculation of coefficient of grey relativity, use these factors to establish the complex evaluate model of multi-objiective decision-making ideal interval model (MODMIIM).Then, contacts the fact of Dunhuang and studies out three scenes of the use of water resource, substitutes the indicate factors in different scenes into MODMIIM to estimate and analyze the water resources carrying capacity of Dunhuang in 2005, 2010 and 2020. The evaluate result shows that in Dunhuang water resources carrying capacity all is the third grade(III), and the capacity is weak in different years, but the capacity could been improved by water saving, waste water reuse and water indraught;especially, after the water indraught, the capacity can be changed from weak(III grade) to common (II grade). The conclusion is consistent with the general balance analysis of supply and demand, and also accord to the subjective cognition of people. It proved that the model has the high credit ,So it can reflect the water resource carrying capacity of Dunhuang, actually and effectively.Eventually, based on the conclusion of integrative evaluation, to bring forward some pertinent and manipulative countermeasures about improving the water carrying capacity of Dunhuang, to ensure the sustaining exploitation and use of water resource in future economic development in Dunhuang, to realize the mutual harmony between water resource, social economy and ecologic environment, in order to create a benign condition to the modern tour city, which is the city of the environmental amity and resource saving.