Reliability Analysis Of Bus Operation Based On Continuous Data

In the past,the study of the characteristics of the reliability of bus operation,most of the continuous data lack of relating to the reliability index of public,can only analyze the reliability of bus operation by the data obtained by local acquisition.The results of the analysis can not fully reflect the comprehensive characteristics of bus operation reliability and deep law.Today,the requirements of high-quality bus service are increasing,we need large sample data to analyze the characteristics and laws of the reliability of the bus operation in-depth and comprehensively.In this paper,the reliability of conventional bus operation is analyzed from several indicators using real-time continuous AVL(Automatic Vehicle Location)data.First of all,the analysis process of continuous single arrival data is established according to the characteristics of the continuous arrival AVL data,and the method of accurately dividing the shift is studied,which provides important basic data support for the later research.Then,we analyzes the bus running time plan for the bus business has been in depth from the level of the single line of the bus operation.Based on the full-day characteristics of the running time of the line,the mathematical characteristics of the running time of the line in the time window are studied.Based on the mathematical characteristics of the running time of the line running time,the mathematical calculations of the quasi-point rate different time windows,different assessment criteria are performed,and then we verify the results of the model by using the actual data,the results are of great importance to the public transport enterprises on the scientific assessment and management.In addition,according to the analysis of a large number of data,we analyzes the line running time distribution characteristics of non-punctual points(early or late shift)and found that a large number of non-quasi-point shift line running time,which the quasi-point assessment standards for the distribution of the difference was concentrated trend.Tt is showed that we can manage and control its operation time using a large number of non-quasi-point running time,that can meet the requirements of public transport enterprises on time assessment.Based on the above analysis,in order to adjust the line running time,from the bus micro-interval(between adjacent sites)operating time level analysis,the goal is to find the space section of adjusting the running time of the entire bus line effectively(Critical micro-interval).In the analysis of the characteristics of the micro-interval run-time,a set of logic and methods for finding the critical micro-interval are developed at the same time,which provides the theoretical and technical support for the adjustment of the running time of the bus line quickly and effectively.Finally,for the various sites of the bus,we study the evolution characteristics of the bus operation interval,and the evolution rule of the bus at the site of the bus operation is analyzed,besides,the research method of the running interval evolution is put forward.The characteristics of the bus operation interval are obtained through the analysis of relevant data,At the same time,the conclusion of the analysis of the key micro-interval and the analysis of the interval evolution characteristics are studied,then the conclusion that there is an interaction between the two is obtained,that is,when the stability of one is affected and the unstable fluctuation occurs,then this fluctuation will be passed to the other party,Which provides a theoretical basis for further study of bus operation reliability.