The Control Running Risk Of Security Based On Real-time Control Interval

Air traffic management system is an important part of the civil transport system, responsible for preventing collisions of aircraft and air traffic smooth and orderly, which has an important responsibility for civil transport system security management. Currently, Our country's Air Traffic Management system is in a growth period of strategic opportunities, rapid development and management transition. China's air transport showed the continued development, which highlighting the air traffic services'security bottlenecks ability. In order to solve these security risks, improve safety management, Air Traffic Management must shift from the traditional experience of the system's security risk management, to establish a scientific, reasonable and workable system of security risks.In order to create a safety, efficient and orderly security risk system to ensure air traffic running safety, you must monitor the running risk of real-time quality. The running risk of real-time quality includes many aspects, involving many factors. In the past few years, the second research institute of CAAC carried out the reach on the real-time running risk in air traffic control, which based on actual running data. They based on integrated target, flight data, low-altitude communications data, doing reach on traffic risk index, communications risk index and conflict risk index. Under the guidance of my instructor, based on the previous research, this thesis focuses on real-time control intervals based on the real-time risks, and its purpose is by researching the real-time interval data, gets the quantitative risk characterization parameters of the interval, in order to realize the real-time monitoring on the running risk in air traffic control.Through access to information, use MATLAB graphics tools and VB programming language, analysis the space between the three dimensions of the relative location of information, and running dynamic, determine the relative relations between the real-time interval and the risk The main works include the following:(1) Refer to both domestic and international data, knowing the depth at the real-time risk assessment and risk research in civil aviation management. Knowing the operation rules and regulations related to air traffic control, pave the way for the thesis writing.(2)Search the relevant information about flight conflict and collision probability. Through the appropriate flight conflict algorithm, determine the number of aircraft which need to be considered in real-time control.(3) In order to describe the dispersion between the potential conflicts aircraft, this paper introduces some new concepts, such as risk distance and average risk distance, used to describe the size of the risk distance between aircrafts which have potential conflict, and the real distance in the whole sector. By data fitting, this paper initially set the relationship between average risk distance and the risk of safe-operation.(4)Use powerful graphics capabilities of MATLAB, combined with the running conflict between vehicles and the degree of difficulty in actual control. By data fitting, this paper getting the relationship between and the risk of safe-operation and the number of aircrafts, which has potential risks.(5)The general design of the model and the select of drawing tools which based on the running security risk in real-time control interval system.(6)The use of visualize programming tool of visual basic to realize the overall display between real-time control interval and risk...