City Buses Running Data Temporal Prediction Algorithm And Reliability Analysis

In order to improve the reliability of the bus system service, bus companies have spent a lot of time and financial resources to implement some of the most advanced transportation and communication technologies. Progress in the bus system service reliability will benefit transit system operators, and will greatly facilitate the passengers. Improved on-time arrival rate of the bus will reduce the volatility of bus arrival time, thus saving passengers’waiting time; also allow bus operators to reduce the extra buffer time in the schedule, so that can reduce the unnecessary behavior of the bus, so bus resource can be used efficiently. Improved service reliability of the public transport system will keep the headway regularity and reduce passengers’waiting time at the site to ensure that bus resources can be fully utilized. The primary issue for providers and passenger that unreliable service is unnecessary expenditure.However, China’s urban road network system is very complex, buses are affected by other private cars, bicycles and taxis. In order to better facilitate people’s travel, there has been a lot of APP software, such as micro-step, handheld wireless city buses, public transportation and other software, but the developers of these software did not analyze the data in-depth and did not analyze the bus reliability,so the data provided by the software exist deviation, resulting in a decline in quality of service. Survey shows that the bus running time reliability has become an important means to enhance the attractiveness of urban public transportation, it is not only affect people’s travel choices, but also affect the bus company’s decision in making schedule. However, due to the weather, road conditions, time, lights green ratio and other factors, the current bus running time reliability is not satisfactory.The results of bus service reliability model have a lot of inspiration on the bus service planning, development and operational control. Because the bus delay variation directly affects the passenger’ waiting time, the above conclusions passengers also have a very important role. This paper has three main research goals. First:explore the impact of each factor; second:explore whether the influence is significant (P value); third, draw some conclusions from the model. This paper gives the definition of bus running time reliability:the standard run-time slip (CV)=standard deviation/mean, and then collect 27 days data of the three representative lines, finally give the formal model and get the coefficients, draw conclusions based on the reliability of the model.