Operational Safety Risk Coupling Analysis And Management Of The Highway Regular Passenger Transport

In recent years,with rapid economic development,in China,road,railway,aviation and other modes of transport are developing at a high speed,so that the tension between demand and supply of passenger transport has been significantly alleviated.Among them,as an important part of road passenger transport,the highway regular passenger transport effectively improves supply-demand relationship of the long-distance passenger transport.However,due to the characteristic of the highway regular passenger transport,such as long lines,complex road environment along the lines,imperfect safety regulation and using coach as passenger transportation facilities,the accident rate and casualty rate are high.At present,the risk management of the highway regular passenger transport is not validity enough,which is mainly focus on the management of a single risk in order to achieve the safety of the whole highway regular passenger service system.The coupling effect among the various types of risks in the system,can significantly increase the harm of the risks,and the current study on the risk management of the highway regular passenger transport cannot effectively eliminate the coupling effect.Therefore,operational safety risk management of the highway regular passenger transport based on risk coupling theory has great practical significance and theoretical value in respects,such as enhancing the effectiveness of the safety risk management,reducing the accident rate and the casualties.This paper studies on the constitution,the assessment,the coupling mechanism,the measure model of the coupling degree and the management strategy of the operational safety risk in the highway regular passenger service system,on the basis of theory and method in various discipline including the system engineering,the theory of risk management,gray relative analysis,accidents-causing theory and so on.Based on the accident causation theory and the accident statistics of the highway regular passenger transport,the operational safety risk of the highway regular passenger transport can be divided into human factor risk,vehicle factor risk,road factor risk and environmental factor risk.Due to the effect of coupling on the harm degree to the non-major risk source is not enough to make it qualitative change or close to the qualitative change point.Screen out the main risk source by the gray relative analysis method,as a basis of the study on the safety risk coupling of the highway regular passenger transport.Based on the theory of risk coupling and the trace intersecting theory,definite and classify the coupling risk of the highway regular passenger transport,and analysis the coupling mechanism.Conduct the coupling risk assessment by building the coupling measure model and hierarchical cluster analysis.At last,based on the idea of decoupling and the result of the coupling risk assessment,generate the targeted strategies of the highway regular passenger transport operational safety risk management.