| Ho Chi Minh port pilot station and its maritime pilots play an important role in promoting maritime safety and maintaining the ports' activities in Vietnam,especially the Port of Ho Chi Minh.However,the unreliability in the pilots'mechanism of the station such as the excess number of third-class pilots and the lacking number of first-class and second-class pilots,has led to operational instability,as well as work overload on the station pilots.Therefore,in order to develop a stable and quality pilot team for the Ho Chi Minh port pilot station,the present study is conducted to forecast the pilot demand and its mechanism in the future.The thesis is mainly based on scientific calculations to analyze and arrange pilot resource demand at Ho Chi Minh port pilot station.At the same time,analysis and learming the pilot training model of some countries in the world such as China,Singapore,Japan,etc.This study will also provide a development reference for other pilot stations in Vietnam.This study employs the Grey-Markov forccasting model to predict the number of ships entering and leaving the Port of Ho Chi Minh for the year 2022 and 2030,and through the pilotage plan,age structure,and pilots' experience,etc.,the pilot demand for the year 2020 and 2030 is predicted.A long-term sample data(from 2006 to 2017)of the number of ships entering/leaving the Ho Chi Minh port was used for this study.The results revealed that the required number of pilots for Ho Chi Minh port pilot station increases in 2022 and 2030.The trend of the demand for the number of pilots until 2030 is forecasted as the demand for outstanding-class and first-class pilots increases,the number of second-class pilots increases insignificantly,the number of third-class pilots fell.Along with the study of the pilot training model of some developed maritime countries,some of recommendations are proposed for the construction of the pilot team for Ho Chi Minh port pilot station in the future. |
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