Study On Medium/Long-distance Trip Mode Choice Model Based On Prospect Theory

With the acceleration of urbanization process in China,the demand for intercity travel growths significantly.In the background of the rapid development of road,rail and air transport,the medium/long-distance passenger transport market has the characteristics of high-speeding operation,diversified transportation structure,and the humanistic service quality.As an important attribute of promoting the interchange of regional economy and culture,transport has profound influence on the sustainable development of the urban agglomeration.Traffic system is typical for its uncertainty,prospect theory provides a new way to describe the decision rules of passenger travel under uncertainty.Therefore,taking the six trip modes of highway,railway and air transportation as research objective,prospect theory was proposed to study on passengers' medium/long-distance trip mode choice behavior in order to lay the foundation for rational allocation of regional transport resources and improving the efficiency of integrated transport system.First of all,on the basis of summarizing the features of moderate/long-distance trip from the whole travel process,this paper analyzed the technology,economic service characteristics of cars,coach,normal-speed railway,fast-speed railway,high-speed railway and airplane.Furthermore,the essay concluded that travelers' characters,traffic tools' attributes,trip characteristics,uncertainty of travel environment had the main influence on trip modes selecting.Based on the theoretical analysis of the moderate/long-distance travel behavior,the essay used analytic hierarchy process to calculate the importance of trip purposes,and established trip mode perceived cost function which consisted of travel time cost,travel fees cost,service utility of traffic tools with the sensibility coefficient.The improved C-TODIM decision-making method is put forward to quantifying traffic tools' safety,punctuality,convenience and comfort.Then medium/long-distance trip modes choice model based on prospect theory was established by which reference point was set up properly,and the prospect value of each trip modes can be acquired by calculating the value function and weight function.Finally,taking the trip between Shanghai and Wuhan as background,a questionnaire in SP survey of trip modes selecting was administered which contained passengers' income levels,trip purposes,emphasis of service attributes of traffic tools,sensitivity to travel time and travel cost,the ultimate selection of trip modes undersimulated travel scenario.Regression analysis for functional relationship among sensitivity scales,income levels and trip purposes was implemented by using statistical analysis software based on SP survey data so that the passengers' sensibility coefficient of travel time and travel cost under different trip purposes was acquired.By comparing the calculated results by the model with the results of survey,the applicability of the model in this paper was verified,and a theoretical evidence for the study of medium/long-distance transport was provided.