Modeling Of Anti-submarine Probability Evaluation Based On Submersible Buoy System

Submersible buoy system is increasingly applied nowadays, which has become one of frontier equipments in the marine technologies and national defense. In the applications of anti-submarine search, submersible buoy system has a number of features advantages such as a high search efficiency, not easily to be found and wide coverage, etc. Therefore, it has important theoretical and practical significance in the community of target search.This paper studies the problem probability evaluation model of submersible buoy system in anti-submarine warfare, establishes three important performance indicator models,submarine detection probability model, targeting model and offensive probability model based on probability and statistics theory through mathematical analysis. Then a simulation experiment is conducted on the MATLAB platform, and the advantages of the submersible buoy system are analyzed. The main research work is as follows.First of all, the research background, significance, and status of the anti-submarine warfare probability evaluation are briefly introduced in this paper.Secondly, basic knowledge of anti-submarine probabilistic assessment theory was introduced in this paper. A brief introduction to the classical anti-submarine detection probability submarine base model was given. And the relevant content on submarines targeting models was studied, which provided the theoretical basis for the study in this paper.Thirdly,on the basis of research on submarine anti-submarine detection probability,a passive submersible buoy system search potential detection probability model of the system was established by combining with the practical application of submarine anti-submarine.Then the simulation experiment was conducted, and the latent standard spacing and submarine velocity influence on anti-submarine detection probability was analyzed quantitatively. The simulation result shows that submersible buoy system has significant improvement for submarine search anti-submarine detection probability. Thus the proposed model provides necessary theoretical support for the research of anti-submarine warfare.Fourthly, we build three typical dives the target models combining with operational situations of submersible buoy system. According to goals regional in submersible buoy array,the target information such as the current location and the direction of the target can be determined using latent mark detection equipment. The established model was experimentally simulated and compared with two classic submarine targeting methods including the quality of distance method and the square method.Finally, this paper studied acoustic homing torpedo probability model for attack and defend based on analytical method. By analyzing the condition homing torpedo finding the target, hitting the target, it gives the concept of homing torpedoes shooting favorable advance angle, and introduces three kinds of solving methods to advance angle. On the basis of analysis homing capture probability model and track probability model, submarine anti-submarine attack probability model and defensive probabilistic model based on self-guided torpedo have been established. Then a simulation experiment is conducted on the MATLAB platform using this model.