Probability Analysis Of Ship Submerged Residual

With the frequent occurrence of marine accidents,such as reefs and overturning of ships,it is of great significance to carry out studies on the stability of ship damage and the probability of surviving the flooding of ships in order to improve safety and reduce the operational risks of ships.Traditional rule-based calculation methods are difficult to reflect the high randomness of marine accidents and the complexity of follow-up effects.It is difficult to predict the following effects.The probability-based calculation method based on targets combined with limited overturning time can effectively assess the possibility of ship overturning and is suitable for the assessment of marine damage.Susceptibility to flooding and safety in accidents.In this paper,probabilistic methods are used to evaluate the safety of ships by calculating the survivability of ships and provide safer ship optimization design.This optimization process can be divided into three main parts: the calculation of damage stability,the analysis of submersion survivability,and the assessment of evacuation capability.The damage stability section uses existing conventions to check existing design plans.This process is the basis of the research.The flooding survivability analysis section derives the probability density distribution of the ship's overturning time through the flooding risk model and related calculation procedures.The flooding scenarios with high probability of overturning and the existence of security risks are optimized.A safe design scheme under specific conditions is given by way of improving the subdivision index.This process is the core part of the research;the evacuation capacity evaluation part is based on the personnel evacuation ability model.The evacuability of personnel on board is evaluated and combined with the ship's overturning time based on a specific scenario derived from numerical simulation methods as a measure to meet the safety requirements of the optimized plan.This process is a key part of the study.If the optimization plan is implemented in all design scenarios,it can be concluded that the optimized solution can meet the design requirements.Based on the probability density distribution of ship overturning time,this paperstudies the ship overturning probability in a certain period of time,optimizes the ship design plan after taking into account the ship subdivision effect,and provides reference for reasonable optimization of subdivision and general layout design during ship design phase.