Early-warning Research On Real-time Large-scale Flight Delays

In the context of the rapid development of China's air transport industry,air traffic capacity can not meet the growing demand for air traffic,large-scale flight delays occur frequently.Large-scale flight delays not only cause huge economic losses,but also easy to breed insecurity.Real-time and accurate early warning of large-scale flight delay is conducive to air traffic control departments,airlines,aerodrome and other relevant units timely and effective adjustment of operational programs to improve the emergency response capacity to ensure flight safety and smooth.Based on the historical data of large-scale flight delay warning data,this paper explores the distribution rule of large-scale flight delay by using multivariate statistical analysis method,and verifies the correlation of main delay factors by statistical method.Then,in order to describe the real-time delay degree of area control airspace,a real-time flight delay early warning model based on flight plan is proposed.Then,the infectious disease model is used to study the propagation mechanism of large-scale flight delay,analyzes the relationship between the flight status and establishes the flight delay warning model based on the improved SIR.Finally,from the large-scale flight delay characteristic attribute factor,the real-time weather factor is added,and the SVM-based real-time forecasting classification strategy based on SVM.Experiments show that the accuracy is highest when using [0,1] normalized and radial basis functions,and the accuracy rate of 94.8% indicates the validity of the model.