Research On Real-time Water Rights Management Mechanism Oriented To Total Water Resources Quantity Controlling

The property of water rights require the water stability boundary,which conflict with the uncertainty of the water,such as water flowand hydrological variability.Therefore the real-time management of water rights isneccessary to schedule the water resources.As a key part of the water rights system,real-time management of water rights can solve the contradictions between the initial water rights and hydrological uncertainties.With the increasingly critical situation of water shortage,the real-time managementof water rights can improve the utilization of water resources,ease the water crisis.However,the research on the real time water right management mechanism somewhat seems to be vacant.Theorily,the complete mathematical model of water rights real-time management whichcan be used to guide water managementdoes not yet exist,the application simulation models are also unable to achieve the process ofwater rights real-time management.Thus,the real-time water right management mechanisms are choosed as theresearcobject of this thesis.This papersorts thereal-time management of water right,analyzes the real-time water right management processes,and determines real time water right management system framework.Due todiscriminatingtheconnotation of water rights real-time management,summarizingthestudies onwater rights real-time management,utilizing the total amount of water as the goal,a universal mechanism for real-time management of water rights mathematical model(WRTM-MODEL)is proposed.To verify the rationality and applicability of the proposed mathematical model,a groundwater and surfacewater cycle simulation model(WEAP-MODFLOW)of the Heihe River basin is established.Based on the userinterfacesprovided by WEAP software,the proposed water rights real time mathematical model is coupled to the surface groundwater model.By setting three different scenarios,the real-time water right management mechanism coupled mathematical model is simulated.The simulation results show that: the proposed real-time water right management mechanism mathematical model(WRTM-MODEL)is applicable.The water rights real-time managementprocesses in Ganzhou Linze and Gaotai have been achieved,and thesurface water supply situations and groundwater level changes caused by real-time management of water rights are reasonable,the total amount of water controlling process can also be realized.It is be proved that the proposed mathematical model(WRTM-MODEL)iscorrect andreasonable.Furthermore,the conceptsand risksof the water right implement in real time water right management mechanismsare summarized,the water rights implement risk factors are discriminated.To quantizethe water rightsimplementrisks,a new concept the water rights 'implement degree' isproposed.Using the actual amounts of water rights and water supply as the target,the 'Implement Degree' is defined,the calculation progresses for the 'Implement Degree' of water rights realization are also identified.By comparison,a negative correlation is betweenthe water rightsrealization risk 'Implement Degree' and the prediction error.With higher hydrological forecasting accuracy,the'Implement Degree'' become smaller,and the risks to realize the waterrights are also smaller.