Optimal Allocation Model And Its Application On Water Resources In Urban Zone

In our country, compatibility among each link of water resource isn't too tight for the moment, such as exploitation, utilization, management and protection, which weakens the whole system function. Water resources supply and demand contradiction is very serious and water quality exacerbation aggravates hydrological ecology environmental disruption. Water shortage due to engineering, resource and pollution consist in some region, which lead to socioeconomic development and water resource development utilization got into vicious circle.In this paper, the water resource optimal allocation of Bao'an District in Shenzhen City is taken as an example. Water need prediction model are developed, including indices method and statistic method. Two runoff prediction models are developed based on the runoff sequence series. One is Grey Correlation Model for year gross forecast, the other is Autoregressive Model for every month forecast. Further more, the runoff series are analyzed by frequency method. Finally, water resources optimal allocation model for this district is developed based on System Decomposition-coordination Theory. This model has different function with time scale. It may analyze water supply and demand for far-seeing plan years, allocate water between different uses for short-range plan years and reformulate allocation plane based on real-time water regime information.