Study On The Factors Affecting Private Bicycle Based On Multinomial Ordinal Logit Model

With the development of urban traffic motorization,traffic congestion,environmental pollution is more and more serious,energy saving and environmental protection of the bicycle traffic began to re-favored by the community,private as an important part of bicycle traffic,whether the residents travel in the choice and Its riding frequency is directly affected by various factors,in order to better develop the policy conducive to the development of bicycle traffic,to understand the impact of private bicycle use factors and the impact of the mechanism is essential.Based on the existing literatures at home and abroad,combined with the characteristics of urban economy such as social economy,regional and land use in Xi'an,a total of 43 indicators were established from four aspects: social economy,psychology,natural environment and building environment.The random sampling survey method was used to collect the riding frequency,ride route,ride cost,travel intention,residential area and personal information of 604 private cycling riders in Xi'an city,and with SPSS advanced Statistical analysis software analysis of rider characteristics;With the help of the Geographic Information System(GIS)spatial analysis tool,the riding-building environment integration data platform is constructed,and the architectural environment characteristics affecting the private cycling are carried out from three aspects: the buffer of the home address,the location and the proximity.The final analysis and screening of the individual and external building environment and riding frequency of the 16 associated factors;Multivariate ordered Logistic regression analysis was carried out by SPSS software.The multi-order Logit model was established by using the full sample,commute travel,leisure and private travel cycling,and the high degree of riding frequency k was defined.The factors influencing the riding frequency of the private bicycle are combined to determine the k value to determine the importance of each factor to the probability of occurrence of the higher riding frequency,and finally obtain the subset of influencing factors of the influencing factors of the private cycling.The study found that the number of families,the number of private bicycles,the concern for low-carbon environmental protection and exercise,riding habits,the distance from the nearest bus station has a positive impact on the frequency of private cycling;on the contrary,there are cars and Driver's license,seasonal changes,the appearance of bad weather,the home address is located in the center of residential areas and tourism business service area,and the distance between the home address and the work unit has a negative impact on the frequency of riding.The chi-square test sig value less than 0.001 through the test of the three models(full sample,commute,leisure travel)analysis available,model one and model two pairs of high riding frequency positive impact of the strongest factors are Concerned about low-carbon environmental protection,k values were 2.363,2.659,model three for the nearest bus station distance(4.03);model one and model three negative impact of the strongest factors are bad weather,k values were 0.385,0.239,Model 2 is home to work unit distance(0.304).